DrStool Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 Today is Labor Day in France, a public holiday throughout Europe. In the UK, it is a floating holiday known as "Early May Bank Holiday." Charming. In Germany, it's also Labor Day. In Italy it is "La Festa dei Lavatori," of the Festival of the Public Restrooms, because there are so few of them. And that's about how it is. In terms of the US market, we had one of the all time great shakeouts last week. Just look at that breakdown in the ES 24 hour S&P fucutures. It measured to 3970. Oops sorry. Just kidding. Down the elevator, up the shaft. Ha ha. But as I always say, it's one thing to cross an oft crossed trading range. It's another to breakout. That's because when ground has been tread over and over in the space of a few months or weeks, the range gets thinned. There are fewer bids and offers, so prices can zoom upward because there's no supply inside the range. It waits at the top of the range, though, and at the same time, there's a 5 day cycle sell signal. By rights, this "should" pull back. But there are no "shoulds" in this business. There are only ises. What is is what matters. So remember, there is only is, not should, is. The next question is whether bears shit in the woods. The answer, as we know, is yes. And also in the fields, and on the beaches, and in the hills, and on the landing grounds, and in the banks, and so on. Are we out of the woods? No. Do bank failures matter? Apparently not. Therefore, be on the lookout for shitting bears. What do bears do when they shit? They cover their shorts. Technical Trader update for the longer term view coming up at about 8 AM ET. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. For moron the markets, see: Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MAY 1, 2023 Market Bullback Was a Masterful Shakeout and Setup! What’s a bullback? It’s a pullback where the bull herd just backs up and then charges. A lot of traders were feeling vindicated in the pullback early last week, because the market “shouldn’t” be this high. But there are no “shoulds” in this business. There is only what “is.” And if the market xxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx , it will probably do a lot of things that most traders, particularly those of the bearish persuasion, think shouldn’t happen. So here’s what to beware of. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 F U Pay me: From Bisnow. “Lenders are getting impatient. Check-in desks and rooms need a tuneup. These are the kinds of challenges coming to a head in the hotel landscape that are expected to help thaw the recent freeze in the industry’s financing markets, several executives said. ‘The lender is saying ‘I’ve extended you for the last three years, you gotta pay me.’ Brands are saying ‘you haven’t reinvested in your assets, you’ve gotta do that.’ You can’t just keep kicking the can,’ said Peachtree Group Chief Investment Officer Brian Waldman.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 The tax base: Omaha WOWT in Nebraska. “Vacant lots and high-interest rates hurt more than just the property owners. They could hurt everyone that benefits from county programs. ‘We have one source of revenue, and it’s property taxes,’ said Douglas County Commissioner PJ Morgan. Morgan pointed to 90th and Dodge as an area of concern. ‘You’ll see that almost every building has ‘for lease’ signs on it,’ he said. ‘There are floors in Regency that have been vacant for two to three years.'” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 Triggered: The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “Over the last year, the Duecks’ mortgage payments nearly doubled, increasing by $2,600 a month. The Duecks are far from alone. When borrowing rates fell to record lows in recent years, about three out of every five Canadian mortgage holders chose variable rates, up from the typical average of about one-third, said Brendon Ogmundson, the chief economist with the B.C. Real Estate Association.” A ‘trigger clause’ is hit when the static monthly payment isn’t high enough to cover rising interest costs, and then the borrower has to start paying more or stretch out the amortization of the mortgage.” ‘No one ever paid attention to (the trigger clause) because it was ‘when pigs fly’, he said. ‘Well, pigs flew last year.'” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 When the 10 year clears 3.65, a lot more dead bodies will float to the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 5 day cycle projection 4180-85. You Are There. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 JPM buying of FRC only further concentrates the risks. Banking consolidation has been going on for years and will almost certainly continue. A day will come when this leads to a most unfavorable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 flowers are blooming, but not a bee in sight. this is mass extinction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 45 minutes ago, BurntOnce said: flowers are blooming, but not a bee in sight. this is mass extinction. We maintain two hives constituting I’d guess 80,000 bees in our backyard. Best damned honey ever. Tried to catch a wild swarm last week to add a third. Become a beekeeper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted May 1, 2023 Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, Jimi said: We maintain two hives constituting I’d guess 80,000 bees in our backyard. Best damned honey ever. Tried to catch a wild swarm last week to add a third. Become a beekeeper. If this market goes on like that I‘ll become a barkeeper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2023 2 hours ago, WTF said: JPM buying of FRC only further concentrates the risks. Banking consolidation has been going on for years and will almost certainly continue. A day will come when this leads to a most unfavorable outcome. One thing we can bank on. A day will come when we'll all be dead. Anything else, not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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