DrStool Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 Forty six thousand percent. Forty six thousand percent. That's how much you woulda, shoulda, coulda made if only you had bought the new baking soda stock in 1980. Who knew? What is today's baking soda of tomorrow? More baking soda? That's the question. Not to be or not to be. No, it's "Where's the baking soda of tomorrow?" Mix it with a little Clorox perhaps? Are there any chemists out there? So the reaction of the stock market to yesterday's plethora of news was interesting. Apparently the banking crisis isn't over yet. Apparently, the debt ceiling and threat of default makes investors want to buy Treasuries, at least the ten yr tenor. Bond guys use that word. I always thought it had something to do with opera singers. Who knew. But we know why they're buying it now. There's too much money and not enough paper to absorb it. But trust me, it's transitory, this too shall pass. Any time someone says "Trust me," or "It's transitory," one thing is sure. It can't be trusted. So watch and verify. You can observe a lot by watching. And so, we will one day at a time. Like today. The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures shows a lower low this morning, but with an instant rebound to create a semblance of a double bottom. However, the lower low was confirmed by a lower low in the hourly oscillators. The final 5 day cycle low is usually accompanied by at least a little positive divergence in the oscillators. So I'd expect a minor new low here, at least. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 Why Not Get Too Excited About Bearish Proclamations… Yet April 24, 2023 Is Gold Still Ticking After This Licking? April 19, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 Bootycoin bombing higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 Record High Manhattan Apartment Rents May Not Save Blackstone From Default ‘There is $37 billion worth of securitized multifamily loans set to expire in the next two years where rental income either isn’t enough to cover debt payments, or covers it with less cushion than is considered standard, according to real-estate data firm Trepp LLC. For comparison, that is more than twice the amount of at-risk loans in the office sector’ https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/record-high-manhattan-apartment-rents-may-not-save-blackstone-from-default/ar-AA1ajHxh?ocid=entnewsntp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 3 hours ago, DrStool said: Forty six thousand percent. Forty six thousand percent. That's how much you woulda, shoulda, coulda made if only you had bought the new baking soda stock in 1980. Who knew? Yep, Just my luck. I invested in baking powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Jorma said: Yep, Just my luck. I invested in baking powder. 😄😄😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 New low with indicator confirmation means probably another lower low before the cycle bottoms. Because there's usually a little positive divergence before the 5 day cycle turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 This top breakdown is awesome. My Top is an awesome Top, blessed be his name. Measures to 3975. 2 hr bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 Will bigtech like Microsoft will mask broad market sell off? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 Sport convergence test. LOB if it doesn't pivot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 The vola in Bootycoin is just sick. 😳 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 Meta published great results. Especially revenue so there is no recession (same verdict, when you would take a look at Microsoft). The big tech will keep defending the bull case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 WTFcoin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 If it's potfarms to the north of me, it's now VRBOs to my beloved desert-south. I think both were symptomatic of loose money & circumstance. Let me provide a recent example for the latter. Look at this listing: Quote And if all that wasn't enough to convince you, this home is also a Superhost listing with over 50 five-star ratings on Airbnb and a management company already attached. https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/3353-Sage-Ave-92284/home/3825815 The price history here is instructive. Asking: $749K Prior Transactions: 12/2020 = $525K 01/2015 = $274K 08/2003 = $56K 04/2000 = $33.5K I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly. Consider that seller wants $225K for the privilege of a 28-month holding period. The pitch is that it's a great VRBO... but you better be careful with modeling that forward, since it benefitted from an extended period of work-from-home alternatives (within 2-hour drive of downtown LA/10 million inhabitants) and the GMTFO-COVID cooped-up period when travel-by-car was easier, and travel abroad unavailable. Meanwhile, anyone want to doubt that the 12/2020 purchase was done with something other than a floating rate, to keep that part of the cost-structure down? And that it has subsequently turned on them? Because I ask myself, "If I had such a successful, professionally-managed cash-flow positive VRBO, why would I be looking to unload it?" Because they don't: the VRBO empires were built on cheap financing and unusual circumstances, both tied to the pandemic. And it's getting unwound. I'll post more of these in the days/weeks ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 21 minutes ago, DrStool said: WTFcoin Crypto is a store of... insanity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 26, 2023 Report Share Posted April 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Jimi said: If it's potfarms to the north of me, it's now VRBOs to my beloved desert-south. I think both were symptomatic of loose money & circumstance. Let me provide a recent example for the latter. Look at this listing: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/3353-Sage-Ave-92284/home/3825815 The price history here is instructive. Asking: $749K Prior Transactions: 12/2020 = $525K 01/2015 = $274K 08/2003 = $56K 04/2000 = $33.5K I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly. Consider that seller wants $225K for the privilege of a 28-month holding period. The pitch is that it's a great VRBO... but you better be careful with modeling that forward, since it benefitted from an extended period of work-from-home alternatives (within 2-hour drive of downtown LA/10 million inhabitants) and the GMTFO-COVID cooped-up period when travel-by-car was easier, and travel abroad unavailable. Meanwhile, anyone want to doubt that the 12/2020 purchase was done with something other than a floating rate, to keep that part of the cost-structure down? And that it has subsequently turned on them? Because I ask myself, "If I had such a successful, professionally-managed cash-flow positive VRBO, why would I be looking to unload it?" Because they don't: the VRBO empires were built on cheap financing and unusual circumstances, both tied to the pandemic. And it's getting unwound. I'll post more of these in the days/weeks ahead. What is this? A 1952 built house in the desert? Who wants to live there? Absolutely sick and insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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