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Rest of the World Loses Interest - 4/17/23

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It sure looks as though the rest of the world has lost interest in trading the ES, 24 hour S&P 500 fuguetures. WIth good reason! I mean, the pattern is unmistakably bullish with higher highs and higher lows, but who can trust this market? Besides, a 5 day cycle projection of 4165 has already been all but hit. 

But then there's always that other hand. This high base breakout has a conventional measured move objective of 4210. Furthermore if the futures do hit 4165 early enough the 5 day cycle projection should then point higher. 

Then again, if they can push it under 4128 this morning bears would have a shot. 


Meanwhile, money rates are on the rise again despite the paydowns of T-bills and the massive flight of cash into MMFs. This just should not be happening. In view of the reduced supply of bills, the price should be rising, and the reciprocal of price, the rate, should be falling. I'm wondering if its the seasonal tax effect. First, taxpayers withdraw cash from the system to pay Uncle Sam, then Uncle puts it back via T-bill paydowns. That should push rates down starting later this week. 


At the same time, the yield on the 10 year Treasury also looks to be headed higher. We have to wonder if a crisis of confidence in US debt might be brewing as the debt ceiling Doomsday approaches. With the crazies in charge in Congress, the idea of a US debt default isn't unthinkable. 


Safehaven Coin seems to have met its match at multiple resistance lines and a 9 month cycle projection around 32,000. But the base breakout still measures to around 34,000. That's still possible, if not likely, after a pullback. 


Finally, Gold's chart is a thing of beauty, winding up to first challenge the highs, then break through


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Passing through.  No one's around?

I'll leave a few charts for the 'one, maybe two' bears still hanging in there.  You can come out of your caves...I assure you...it is safe to do so. 

Despite claims to the contrary...the bulls are running amok worldwide.  Addiction has a way of...well, you know.

Ok...on to the charts.

Remember last week when I added two lines to the SLV chart to 'divide' the pattern?  I also said...SLV would need to hold 22.50 to remain trouble free?  Well...it burst right to and through 23.50...did it not?  That was the peak I was looking for.

Again...I'll repeat...below 22.50 and things aren't so good in Silver City.  The sewers are starting to back up, the electricity is getting sketchy...and I keep hearing of muggings and break-in's going on just down the street.  Be careful...

Here is the simple chart I was looking at.  In silver...sometimes you have to subtract 10, just like I did in 2008 from the peak @ 19.20...to 9.00.  This time...I just added 10.


Nice and simple.

Speaking of dividing a chart.  Let's take a look at the Dow?  Oh...yeah, you can divide this chart too.  And the Dow...is my specialty...I can slice it up six ways from Sunday.


Let's see...that's one, two, three steps...in the right direction.  Yes.  I am calling for a 16,000 point decline.  Right now.

Surely...CoinGuy...You've gone insane?  Look at Europe?  The CAC is making new highs?  We're heading straight up from here!  Get on...or get out of the way!

Not so fast...

You see...I've been following the charts of the banks for several years(decades actually), not just the last few months...and...they've been leading this market 'by years.' 

What do you mean by years?  Well...see for yourself.

I'd say more...but a picture is worth more than my words...


For those who like to study...


Continued in the next post...size limitations.



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Speaking of Companion Chart's.  I recently updated my 'soon to be famous' The Great Unwind chart.  I've add a Companion Chart to the series.  I'm going to pound on this until it becomes second nature.  I realize it was hard to look at the following chart and derive anything of use from it. Although...as it unfolds...that is where it starts to lay...the golden eggs.

Here is the original...again.


and...here is it's new Companion Chart.  If you want to see the regular updated version...it's in last weeks(or so) archives here on this forum.  Please take the time to study and understand this chart...and what it is saying.  I do believe your financial life depends on it - for a decade to come.


I'm extremely bearish on all of Europe.  Although, I understand the DAX and the CAC 40's charts the best.  Both of them are in serious trouble.  This setup was easy to see a year ago...it tells me no one even tried to study their "Twins Peaks"  Reference Chart.


Before I hit..."Submit Reply" here...I took a look through my charts on the daily.  The GLD is still above support at 180...currently holding light support at 185.  The SLV is holding above 22.50...but the ^HUI is below 272.  I'm watching this closely. 

Remember what I said about the HUI below 272(and UUP above 27.20?)?  I'd re-post the chart, but there isn't enough room in this post...see the "Carry On My Wayward Son" chart in the recent archives.

As of this moment...this chart is still active.  Above 192...it is NOT.  Will you get another stab uptown?  Depends on 185, then 180...


Boy...if that VIX get's any lower they're going to have to send out a search party.  We're at what...January 2022 levels?



The CoinGuy


For those so inclined.  Yet...one more time.  Although...It's almost too late.


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debt ceiling crisis.

There is a growing chance Washington “will bumble into the first default in our nation’s history,” the Republican said on his 100th day as House Speaker, adding that he wanted to raise the alarm for the financial world, which has downplayed the issue in recent months.

yahoo news

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I want Hugh Hendry‘s sunglasses 😎

They are almost as cool as those of De Niro in Casino:

See, it is like here with us: We could have had „the Food & Beverage job“, aka Vanguard index fund, instead we trade in and out for 20 years only to realize that we didn‘t even beat the index…

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