DrStool Posted April 14, 2023 Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 The current uptrend is now a month old. It's also been dzackly 6 months since the major trend low last October. That tells us something. Nothing. OK, if you weren't long, you was wrong. But from here? For one thing, the trend is still up. The 5 day cycle projection is 4166. And 4166 is the zackly 50% retracement of the decline from January to October 2022, of blessed memory. It was already exceeded once by a few percent in the rally of last September to February. What happens on that test, which I am quite certain will happen based on liquidity analysis, will tell us much about the future. Click here for the big picture TA. New recruits have 90 days to follow along risk free. Below is the 2 hour bars look on the ES 24 hour fuguetures. The uptrend is clear, but it's notable that the momentum has been piss poor over the last week. I'm skeptical that that means anything. It would, if the market has an hourly close under 4070. Otherwise, no. In fact, if they break out through 4150, I'd expect momo to break out along with prices. That would be scary. A high base breakout at this point would have a conventional measured move target of 4220. All in one day? Maybe not today, can't rule it out. Some humongous Treasury bill paydowns are coming next week that will pump cash into the markets. And the usual 1 hour bar look: I agree with those who complain that the rally has been weak and narrow. However, that doesn't change the fact that for the past 6 months most of the money has been made on the long side. Some of us have struggled with that. I say "us" pointedly, because I too have struggled to pick winners over that time. Whether it's a built in cognitive bias, or something else, I don't know. But self doubt is part of the game. It's a constant learning curve because markets are shape shifters, and it feels like that's getting worse. Meanwhile, in cryptoworld, SafeTCoin keeps running. It has now surpassed its 9 month cycle projection of 29,500, on its way to the conventional measured move target of the base breakout. That's around 34k. The 3 month cycle projection is 32k. The top of the uptrend channel today is around 30,800. If that's cleared, they'll see 32k in a heartbeat. At the same time, since the banking crisis erupted back in March, buyers have been very reluctant to pile into the traditional safe haven of Treasuries. All signs pointed toward a big rally there, with lower yields as a result. It hasn't happened. Liquidity will become even more favorable for a rally in the Treasury market next week. If it doesn't happen, something terrible lurks in the great behind. Here's the chart. Why haven't yields broken down. That's the question. Not to be or not to be. Toobedoobedo. What are the chances? And gold. Oh my! What if it takes out 2080? For moron the markets, see: Here’s What’s Next Now That Gold Has Reached Its Limit April 10, 2023 Cycle Indicators Tell How to Play This Rally Now April 10, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 14, 2023 Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 Retail Sales much worse than expected, but rates bomb higher? Uhmmm... ohkkaaayyy........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted April 14, 2023 Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 Great earnings reports from big banks like JPM. Big is getting bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted April 14, 2023 Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 Just now, SiP said: Great earnings reports from big banks like JPM. Big is getting bigger. bigger is better.. its not just the size, its how fast it can rise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 5 day cycle projection 4175-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 14, 2023 Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 Never forget the USS Indianapolis. TCG oh...and... From January 4th to April 14th is how many days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 14, 2023 Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 41 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: Never forget the USS Indianapolis... TCG June 29th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted April 14, 2023 Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 2 hours ago, The CoinGuy said: Never forget the USS Indianapolis. TCG oh...and... From January 4th to April 14th is how many days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 2-3 day cycle projection 4110. Myeh. Maybe. If they don't break that, the uptrend channel that started yesterday would remain intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2023 Another higher low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted April 15, 2023 Report Share Posted April 15, 2023 eurusd uup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 15, 2023 Report Share Posted April 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted April 15, 2023 Report Share Posted April 15, 2023 Asset sales by regional banks in receivership, plus distressed loans tied to office and retail properties, could soon hit the market, creating attractive opportunities for private credit and distressed buyers, according to Ellington’s report. Many private credit lenders are also private equity shops with experience working out distressed assets. On Starwood Property Trust Inc.’s most recent earnings call, the company alluded to an office building in downtown Los Angeles that it plans to redevelop or sell, having foreclosed on its associated mortgage loan. “All of our foreclosed real-estate we’ve sold in the aggregate” at a “significant profit to the value of the loans that we put in place, because we are an equity shop too,” said Jeff DiModica, president of the firm, on the call. “We are seeing attractive opportunities in short-term capital injections at the mezzanine level for debt that’s going to mature soon,” he said. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-13/shadow-lenders-to-bridge-real-estate-void-left-by-banks-bonds?leadSource=uverify wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 15, 2023 Report Share Posted April 15, 2023 There was this guy Martin (?) Armstrong, who made market predictions, while sitting in prison. Guy was quite famous and got cited often 10-15 years ago. What happened to him? And where are the Kontra-idiot-eff guys with their sinus like curves??? And where is Elliott? See: Not only bulls have „false“ narratives, bears too… and quite a lot of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted April 15, 2023 Report Share Posted April 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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