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Stock Market Uptrend Reaching Milestone Tells Us This 4/14/23

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The current uptrend is now a month old. It's also been dzackly 6 months since the major trend low last October. That tells us something. 

Nothing. OK, if you weren't long, you was wrong. But from here? For one thing, the trend is still up. The 5 day cycle projection is 4166. And 4166 is the zackly 50% retracement of the decline from January to October 2022, of blessed memory. 

It  was already exceeded once by a few percent in the rally of last September to February. What happens on that test, which I am quite certain will happen based on liquidity analysis, will tell us much about the future. Click here for the big picture TA. New recruits have 90 days to follow along risk free. 

Below is the 2 hour bars look on the ES 24 hour fuguetures. The uptrend is clear, but it's notable that the momentum has been piss poor over the last week. I'm skeptical that that means anything. It would, if the market has an hourly close under 4070. Otherwise, no.

In fact, if they break out through 4150, I'd expect momo to break out along with prices. That would be scary. A high base breakout at this point would have a conventional measured move target of 4220. All in one day? Maybe not today, can't rule it out.  Some humongous Treasury bill paydowns are coming next week that will pump cash into the markets.


And the usual 1 hour bar look: 


I agree with those who complain that the rally has been weak and narrow. However, that doesn't change the fact that for the past 6 months most of the money has been made on the long side. Some of us have struggled with that. I say "us" pointedly, because I too have struggled to pick winners over that time. Whether it's a built in cognitive bias, or something else, I don't know. But self doubt is part of the game. It's a constant learning curve because markets are shape shifters, and it feels like that's getting worse. 

Meanwhile, in cryptoworld, SafeTCoin keeps running. It has now surpassed its 9 month cycle projection of 29,500, on its way to the conventional measured move target of the base breakout. That's around 34k. The 3 month cycle projection is 32k. The top of the uptrend channel today is around 30,800. If that's cleared, they'll see 32k in a heartbeat. 


At the same time, since the banking crisis erupted back in March, buyers have been very reluctant to pile into the traditional safe haven of Treasuries. All signs pointed toward a big rally there, with lower yields as a result. It hasn't happened. Liquidity will become even more favorable for a rally in the Treasury market next week. If it doesn't happen, something terrible lurks in the great behind. 

Here's the chart. Why haven't yields broken down. That's the question. Not to be or not to be.  

Toobedoobedo. What are the chances? 


And gold. Oh my! What if it takes out 2080?


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2-3 day cycle projection 4110.

Myeh. Maybe. 

If they don't break that, the uptrend channel that started yesterday would remain intact. 


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Asset sales by regional banks in receivership, plus distressed loans tied to office and retail properties, could soon hit the market, creating attractive opportunities for private credit and distressed buyers, according to Ellington’s report. 

Many private credit lenders are also private equity shops with experience working out distressed assets. On Starwood Property Trust Inc.’s most recent earnings call, the company alluded to an office building in downtown Los Angeles that it plans to redevelop or sell, having foreclosed on its associated mortgage loan.

“All of our foreclosed real-estate we’ve sold in the aggregate” at a “significant profit to the value of the loans that we put in place, because we are an equity shop too,” said Jeff DiModica, president of the firm, on the call. 

“We are seeing attractive opportunities in short-term capital injections at the mezzanine level for debt that’s going to mature soon,” he said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-13/shadow-lenders-to-bridge-real-estate-void-left-by-banks-bonds?leadSource=uverify wall

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There was this guy Martin (?) Armstrong, who made market predictions, while sitting in prison. Guy was quite famous and got cited often 10-15 years ago. What happened to him?

And where are the Kontra-idiot-eff guys with their sinus like curves??? And where is Elliott? 

See: Not only bulls have „false“ narratives, bears too… and quite a lot of.

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