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Subtle Signs Market is Weakening 4/11/23


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Daily Treasury Statement 

But I don't want to give away the store. 😊

3 minutes ago, potatohead said:

Lee, Where do you find the payroll withholding tax data? I am referencing your work to a few people.

 

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What's crazy is the BLS non-farm payrolls data. Boggles my mind how they can be that far off unless it's intentional fudging. Ultimately they'll revise it back to where it should be but it'll be so much after the fact that nobody will pay any attention. 

The size of the annual rebenchmarking last year was outrageous. 

 

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I think the statistics were reconfigured to meet a political objective or promote a narrative.  Your read on the raw numbers makes perfect sense. The hedonics and other estimating measures are not used by any other business or purpose. Its all for show. Keep the  public moving along as they increase money supply and debt throughout the years. 

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NY Fed - Fed holdings, which now stand at $8.7 trillion, will likely fall to around $6 trillion by the middle of 2025 before holding steady for around a year. Holdings are then expected to grow to maintain balance with the growth of the economy and tick back up to $7.2 trillion by 2030.

Aggressive purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds kicking off at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020 more than doubled the size of the SOMA, which peaked last summer at just shy of $9 trillion. The Fed is now allowing just shy of $100 billion per month in bonds it owns to expire and not be replaced

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ny-fed-report-sees-several-more-years-balance-sheet-contraction-2023-04-11/

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44 minutes ago, SiP said:

NY Fed - Fed holdings, which now stand at $8.7 trillion, will likely fall to around $6 trillion by the middle of 2025 before holding steady for around a year. Holdings are then expected to grow to maintain balance with the growth of the economy and tick back up to $7.2 trillion by 2030.

Aggressive purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds kicking off at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020 more than doubled the size of the SOMA, which peaked last summer at just shy of $9 trillion. The Fed is now allowing just shy of $100 billion per month in bonds it owns to expire and not be replaced

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ny-fed-report-sees-several-more-years-balance-sheet-contraction-2023-04-11/

I just love when the Fed makes long term policy predictions. I won't waste my time reading it. They're driving a runaway bus through hairpin turns on a mile high cliffside one lane road. 

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52 minutes ago, SiP said:

NY Fed - Fed holdings, which now stand at $8.7 trillion, will likely fall to around $6 trillion by the middle of 2025 before holding steady for around a year. Holdings are then expected to grow to maintain balance with the growth of the economy and tick back up to $7.2 trillion by 2030.

Aggressive purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds kicking off at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020 more than doubled the size of the SOMA, which peaked last summer at just shy of $9 trillion. The Fed is now allowing just shy of $100 billion per month in bonds it owns to expire and not be replaced

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ny-fed-report-sees-several-more-years-balance-sheet-contraction-2023-04-11/

Comedy gold. For us sickos.

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