DrStool Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 That pullback was probably just the 5 day cycle down phase, with the cycle low at yesterday's low, tested this morning. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures, only need to be above 4105 at mid day today to break the mild downtrend and indicate a new 5 day cycle up phase. On the other hand, if they manage an hourly close below 4085, that would complete a nice little top pattern. The conventional measured move implication would then be 4035. That, in turn would break the 8 day uptrend channel. In view of the US Treasury pumping $55 billion in cash into dealer, investor, and other accounts this week, I'd have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bullish case. More later. For moron the markets, see: Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 First, the Rally, Then … April 3, 2023 Gold Takes a Breather Before Lunar Launch March 30, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Traders, Take Your Naps March 29, 2023 Watch Out For This If the Market Comes Unstuck March 27, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 If the 10 year yield closes below 3.25, that would complete a top 6 months in the making. The measured move target would be 2.40. Hard to believe, Harry. So on the other hand, if this level holds, and they get it above 3.60, then this 3 month pattern leans toward being a consolidation before a breakout to much higher levels. Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 With all that liqui in April they could also just buy Treasuries and leave stocks aside, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 TD Becomes Biggest Bank Short With $3.7 Billion on the Line In recent weeks, short sellers have upped their bearish bets against Toronto-Dominion Bank , and now have roughly $3.7 billion on the line vis-à-vis Canada’s second-largest lender, according to an analysis by S3 Partners. That’s the most among financial institutions globally and puts TD ahead of the likes of France’s BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. Merger arb, Schwab stake, Canada housing woes seen as drivers add this to the list of known unknowns.....great report yesterday, Lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 19 minutes ago, potatohead said: TD Becomes Biggest Bank Short With $3.7 Billion on the Line In recent weeks, short sellers have upped their bearish bets against Toronto-Dominion Bank , and now have roughly $3.7 billion on the line vis-à-vis Canada’s second-largest lender, according to an analysis by S3 Partners. That’s the most among financial institutions globally and puts TD ahead of the likes of France’s BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. Merger arb, Schwab stake, Canada housing woes seen as drivers add this to the list of known unknowns.....great report yesterday, Lee They bet against the Canadien housing market - which is in a monster bubble - and "short TD" is the vehicle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 NVDA gaps down... AAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIiiiiiiiiiiii.......🖕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 5 day cycle projection 4067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, WTF said: NVDA gaps down... AAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIiiiiiiiiiiii.......🖕 Nvidia is a graphics crad producer and Amazin dot bomb a retailer. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, WTF said: NVDA gaps down... AAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIiiiiiiiiiiii.......🖕 Couldn't hold 275 eh? Whodathunkit. TCG oh...and... You've got precious metals dangling in the air here. in the SLV I do believe know 22.50 has to hold. In the GLD...I don't like the way it looks right here. It needed to make an attempt at 192 and then go on to 200. If it can't hold in the air...as long as it stays above 180...you're good. If not...well, you already know. With all of the pent up energy in the precious metals complex...if its going to break...it will be in gaps. I'm sitting this one out... I'll add this... So. Why 22.50? Let's go back to the SLV topping pattern from 2011 and add a red line to sub-divide the formation. Back then...I said the same thing at 32.50. Now...let's add a chart of the pandemic crash in the SLV as well as our current situation. Perhaps...now you can see why I said...it has to hold 22.50. If it doesn't. It's on a quick trip downtown. Hence...the Bear Market Instruction Manual...just in case. Of course...I could be wrong. If I am. The GLD will gap through 192.00 and 200.00. IF it doesn't hold those levels? Once it's back below 190. The coffin lid is shut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 REGIONAL BANKS STILL OVERVALUED This is a process that will take time. Where are the Bank short ETF's when you need them????? Instead we have all these META ETF's and now I presume a new rash of AI ETF's (can keep the new hot narrative down!!!!) The FED will have to keep printing to plug the deposit gap. Everyone will eventually end up in the "Safe House" of the RRP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 Since I'm here...I'm going to park the following charts below. Encapsulated are my thoughts in regards to the ^XOI and the GLD coupled with the long term view of the SPX. As I've said before, I operate under the premise that all markets are connected. Maybe you can get something from them...or not. Best, TCG The Original... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 How‘s Tom Lee today? And have they that italian mobster on who looks like the younger brother of John Gotti? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 Thanks TCG... the charts are much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, WTF said: Thanks TCG... the charts are much appreciated. No problem FTW... A trip to the magnet first is the most bullish scenario! Just as the example that was given with the SLV...here is the pattern in the GLD. There are several variations, but the current pattern is the best the GLD has to offer...and right now it's in between three different variations while it's sitting up here in the air. I've tried to give my interpretation for each variation I expect...is possible. It's not all bad... It could get very bullish here real quick...and I've given the parameters that I'm watching. IF you start to gap up from here, rest assured you're probably not coming back. Although...that is precisely the scenario I didn't want to see. I'll keep it quick, but if you go back to the low in late 2015? If you break out here...you're going into a fifth wave blow off immediately. While you can easily tack on a 1000...quickly. That isn't good for the market long term...at best...it will flip you into a long sideways consolidation and at worse. There's your blow off...it's all over. I'd prefer to take the slow path and I cannot quantify this market breaking out when silver doesn't seem ready. Therefore...I'm sitting and watching. If the bus leaves the station without me. There's always another bus coming along. I'm the buy low/sell high type. Not the buy high/sell higher type. Too much risk.. We're going to know soon enough...we're on the edge of...something. From my perspective. Across ALL markets...I'd feel more comfortable if we had another burst or two to the upside....although, I see several indices that look quite tired. Always remember... One days does not a new trend make. Turns...need to be confirmed on volume. Pretend you're from Missouri. Show me... Money Talks, Bullshit Walks. Never be in a rush...Patience. ON the flipside... TCG oh...and... Very quickly. The 'best example' against our current setup... To conclude... Please recall: Just...Double It. Isn't invalidated until the GLD pops 190 on volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 Did the market close early today for Paysuck? Hog some may ach, and let my Paypal go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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