DrStool Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 I look at this hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures, and the uptrend looks spent. But the 5 day cycle projection has risen to 4080. And there's clearance to 4072, the next resistance trendline. In addition, so far it is holding above the downtrend line from the February 2 peak. No reason to be bearish today. But if they can push it under 4049, then maybe. For moron the markets, see: Gold Takes a Breather Before Lunar Launch March 30, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Traders, Take Your Naps March 29, 2023 Watch Out For This If the Market Comes Unstuck March 27, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Smells a bit funeralish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Oh yes! People simply can‘t wait to give their hard earned money in the hands of Stalinists, Maoists, Neo-Marxists and other psychodelics! Gimme a FbeeeeepBREAK! 😡 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 hours ago, DrStool said: But the 5 day cycle projection has risen to 4080. And there's clearance to 4072, the next resistance trendline. Almost done, and done. Oh, and one more ting, if I may. The 5 day cycle projection is now 4090. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Price behaves as if we are absolutely awash in liqui: Just grinding slowly but surely higher. Like during QE wonderland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 ARKK above 40, hammer candle on the monthly, Cathy Wood pregnant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Inverted middle finger formation on Junk Bonds weekly. Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 you laughed at the prospects for Intel. But new data center chips are making quite a splash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 SPX 2/16/23 gap ✔️ 12/1/22 shoulder ✔️ End of quarter ✔️ Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Play By Play On the New Rules of the Game LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS MARCH 31, 2023 The game has changed and there’s not even a pitch clock. But there is a bond market loss clock. Right now, it’s on a timeout. The Fed has given it a lifeline and the Treasury will stepping up with its usual seasonal help in April. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Money is the Fed’s game, but not even the Fed knows what’s coming next. It used to be that it kind of knew, and so did we. Rule Number One, “Don’t fight the Fed,” was easy to follow because the Fed told us in advance exactly what it would do, week in and week out, month in and month out. For 12 years, following QE to ever higher asset prices was a no-brainer. Non-subscribers, click here for access. No more. The Fed is flummoxed, a victim of its own blind hubris. So now it’s making up willy-nilly firefighting tactics on the fly. Under the circumstances, how do we predict what’s coming? How do we trade that which isn’t known. Do we just guess? Non-subscribers, click here for access. Now, because it’s always about following the money. While we know less now about how that will look in the months ahead, it’s ditto for everybody else. The market will not be able to anticipate policy correctly. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Not that it ever did. I’ve observed through the last two decades especially, that the market follows the money. It doesn’t lead it. The market responds most forcefully and persistently to actual changes in the level of liquidity, not to speculation about what the Fed will do and when will it do it. Money talks and Wall Street BS walks. Non-subscribers, click here for access. So, in theory, if we follow the money in a timely way, we should still be able to stay on top of the game, to react correctly in time, if not in advance of what’s coming. Non-subscribers, click here for access. As a result, I’ve been thinking about and experimenting with better ways to get critical information out to you. I want it to be faster, shorter, and more on point. In the bad old days of QE, things were different because the Fed telegraphed what was coming for weeks and months in advance. Now, they don’t know, so neither do we. So, like the Fed, we need to be reactive, because the unknowns coming at us are greater than the knowns. Non-subscribers, click here for access. The trick will be to react quickly and correctly when we see actual changes in liquidity flows. One of the most important ways to do that, will be, as it was before, tracking the Fed’s weekly balance sheet statement. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Looking at the data we have now, we know that for the next 6 weeks, the markets should xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxx, and that’s bxxxxish. But sell in xxxxxxx xxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Here’s why, and what that means for investors. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Well there is no gunfire in the news yet so that's bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 This is patterning like the Jan Feb rally but starting from a higher low. If it makes a new high, would be the second new high, after second higher low. Draw your own conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, DrStool said: This is patterning like the Jan Feb rally but starting from a higher low. If it makes a new high, would be the second new high, after second higher low. Draw your own conclusions. Xactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 What if the UK pension thing was Bear Stearns and SVB/Credit Suisse was Lehman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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