Jump to content

Pre FOMC Breakout 3/21/23


Recommended Posts

The ES, 24 hour S&P futures have broken out again here in the pre market. They're about 7 points above the peak set two days ago. OK, breakout is too strong a word, but the higher high confirms the uptrend and the validity of the conventional measured move price target. That target is 4035 +/- based on Thursday's breakout from a nice 5 day base. A 2-3 day cycle projection points to 4025.

First they need to clear indicated resistance around 3975-80, and then around 4005 later this morning. The hourly cycle indicators look bullish, so the odds are good that the first level will be broken and the second reached today. 

In case of a miracle rollover, nothing meaningful would happen unless they broke 3940. Massive Fed Monetary Injection Changed the Technical Picture March 20, 2023

-lf2w

The Fed's pattern has been to set the Fed Funds rate by catching up with the 13 week bill rate at each FOMC circus. The 13 week bill has gyrated wildly over the past week. It was actually below Fed funds on Friday, but it's now 21 bp above it. If it stays there, the Fed would have to go up a quarter to stay even. If they don't then they are really, really sceert. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023

-lf3s

Talk about gyrating wildly, the 10 year Treasury yield has popped back up a little after getting slaughtered in a massive buying panic last week. It has reached a trend inflection point at 3.54. What it does here should give us a signal as to how the market will proceed from here. How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023

-lf72

Conversely, gold has made an ugly top pattern on its hourly chart. An hourly close below 1966 would have a conventional measured move implication of around 1930-35. Not good years. But if they don't break down, and subsequently clear 1989, the outlook would brighten. Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023

-lf98

Safehaven Coin has a conventional measured move target of around 34,000 on the daily chart. Meh. 28,500-29,000 is heavy resistance, so we'll see. 

-lfaa

For moron the markets, see:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!

If  you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 31
  • Created
  • Last Reply
43 minutes ago, fxfox said:

The FED is gonna do something idiotic tomorrow.

Something like „we raise by 50 

Unlikely. They have never gotten ahead of the 13 week bill. Play catchup every meeting. It's still just 20 bp above FF. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just wondering aloud....

How does one reconcile the expected response to a credit event by Fed/Treasury when at the same time, a GOP-controlled House pursues a debt-ceiling fight?

I mean... do we all remember the first TARP vote? And how it failed?

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4622819/house-vote-wall-street-bailout-failed-205-228

Hard to imagine how messy it could get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DrStool said:

Unlikely. They have never gotten ahead of the 13 week bill. Play catchup every meeting. It's still just 20 bp above FF. 

Right. They will do 0.25, with an outside chance of doing 0.00.

Maybe announce another alphabet soup „program“ and/or dovish talk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...