sandy beach Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 You guys are killing me today! ROTFLOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 Thanks for the update TCG... Hope all is well with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 REIT and office reit are really tanking. like S&P 500 Office REITs lost already 50% of value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 RUT roh raggy: A close below 1,722 would not be a good sign for the markets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 PennyMac gives Credit Swiss the boot and switches to Atlas. https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001745916/4866ffd3-e18c-4309-8796-bd639899791e.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 Is there any chance to follow their trade and buy it, like Politician ETF? Looks like winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 UBS in talks to acquire Credit Suisse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 1 hour ago, SiP said: UBS in talks to acquire Credit Suisse Swiss National Bank in talks with UBS to acquire Credit Suisse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted March 18, 2023 Report Share Posted March 18, 2023 14 hours ago, WTF said: Thanks for the update TCG... Hope all is well with you. One more time...."Until 3600 is breached on Volume...you're still in the topping pattern in the ^GSPC". WTF... I saw in my notes that I gave you a Gold Star awhile back for one reason or another. I always give a bonus chart to those I give a Gold Star too... Here ya go. Mull it over. Carefully... What sector is leading this decline? Correct. Bank stocks...everything else will eventually follow. With that said... "Once the MAGNET(2,24(x) to 2,25(x).) in the ^GSPC has been achieved, it is best to walk away and clear your head for the eventual turn in the market, BUT that does not mean the MAGNET is the low." Far from it... Since I cannot recall if you were around in the spring of last year when I explained the magnet...I'll repeat...The March 23, 2020 low is the MAGNET for ALL issues. The tech stocks are leading the decline and are one step ahead of the ^GSPC/^DJI and have already reached their prospective magnets. For further information on this topic you could go back into the archives and take a peak at "Through the Looking Glass". What am I really saying here WTF? To sum up... As the tech stocks(^IXIC) enter into their fifth wave...the ^GSPC/^DJI complex will fall from their lofty position of the topping pattern into their third wave. Confirmation will come in the ^GSPC as you crack 3600, but only on Volume. Again. One Step Behind. The magnet, when reached...will not be the low. A retest will be in order...at a minimum. Although, a nice quick truncated fifth has the highest odds of what really takes place. At that time...long positions will the most favorable. For a time... Take care and I'll see you on the flipside... TCG oh...and...uh... Again. I'll park this right here... The level of speculation I've witnessed over the last few weeks...it's nothing short of disheartening. Most of the issues being ramped...should be closed and eventually will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 18, 2023 Report Share Posted March 18, 2023 THE APPROPRIATE ANALOG What is the appropriate analog for the financial events to today. I think its the S and L crisis of the 1980's...... Where all the thrifts were squeezed between higher deposit rates and all their fixed low rate 30 year mortgages. Similarly we are having the great NIM (that's net interest margin for you financial ratio afficianados) ) squeeze for the regional banks Its not only the bonds and mbs they have on their balance sheet. Don't forget all the other fixed rate loans they have on their balance sheets. They will all have to be funded at higher deposit rates. There has been a great disturbance in the matching principal. Basically the banks went to sleep on duration risk management during ZIRP/NIRP and did not hit the panic button when the FED stopped printing in March 2022. In other words they actually believed the inflation is transitory propaganda. Bad mistake!!!!!!!!!! Regional banks profitability will be crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted March 18, 2023 Report Share Posted March 18, 2023 5 hours ago, The CoinGuy said: One more time...."Until 3600 is breached on Volume...you're still in the topping pattern in the ^GSPC". WTF... I saw in my notes that I gave you a Gold Star awhile back for one reason or another. I always give a bonus chart to those I give a Gold Star too... Here ya go. Mull it over. Carefully... What sector is leading this decline? Correct. Bank stocks...everything else will eventually follow. With that said... "Once the MAGNET(2,24(x) to 2,25(x).) in the ^GSPC has been achieved, it is best to walk away and clear your head for the eventual turn in the market, BUT that does not mean the MAGNET is the low." Far from it... Since I cannot recall if you were around in the spring of last year when I explained the magnet...I'll repeat...The March 23, 2020 low is the MAGNET for ALL issues. The tech stocks are leading the decline and are one step ahead of the ^GSPC/^DJI and have already reached their prospective magnets. For further information on this topic you could go back into the archives and take a peak at "Through the Looking Glass". What am I really saying here WTF? To sum up... As the tech stocks(^IXIC) enter into their fifth wave...the ^GSPC/^DJI complex will fall from their lofty position of the topping pattern into their third wave. Confirmation will come in the ^GSPC as you crack 3600, but only on Volume. Again. One Step Behind. The magnet, when reached...will not be the low. A retest will be in order...at a minimum. Although, a nice quick truncated fifth has the highest odds of what really takes place. At that time...long positions will the most favorable. For a time... Take care and I'll see you on the flipside... TCG oh...and...uh... Again. I'll park this right here... The level of speculation I've witnessed over the last few weeks...it's nothing short of disheartening. Most of the issues being ramped...should be closed and eventually will be. "A sword is against her false prophets, and they will become fools. A sword is against her warriors, and they will be filled with terror. A sword is against her horses and chariots and against all the foreigners in her midst, and they will become like women. A sword is against her treasuries, and they will be plundered. A drought is upon her waters, and they will be dried up. For it is a land of graven images, and the people go mad over idols.…" -- Jeremiah 50:36 The Destruction of Babylon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted March 18, 2023 Report Share Posted March 18, 2023 US FRA minus OIS Spread quickly heading up to early 2020 levels. https://en.macromicro.me/charts/45928/us-fra-ois-spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted March 18, 2023 Report Share Posted March 18, 2023 UBS asking for a Swiss government backstop on losses if it acquires UBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 18, 2023 Report Share Posted March 18, 2023 THE DURATION ALGORITHM The equation that applies to the regional banks right now is: Inflation + Duration Risk Mismatch = Chapter 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted March 18, 2023 Report Share Posted March 18, 2023 2 hours ago, sandy beach said: UBS asking for a Swiss government backstop on losses if it acquires UBS. In other developments, Swiss water remains wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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