Stocks Look Ripe for Rollover But Bitcoin Bullish, Market Itching For Gold Bonds - 3/16/23

[DrStool]

The ES 24 hour S&P futures  looks ready to roll over as I write at 4:45 AM New York time. But being ready, and doing it are not one and the same. First, we need confirmation in the form of an hourly close below sport at 3889, accompanied by a downturn in the hourly oscillators. The next requirement would be an hourly close below a sport line convergence at 3883. If that happens, then bears are talkin. Otherwise no go. And even if they break, a rebound from the 3840 area would leave us in this hellish limboscape. 

Bulls have a similar challenge with multiple resistance lines around 3905-3910. Breaking those would give them a shot at completing a potentially very bullish pattern by clearing 3938. But likewise, no go if they fail to do that. 

At this point, we don't know and neither do they, in other words, nobody knows nuthin. 

Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023

The 10 year Treasury yield chart setup holds the future of Western Civilization in its hand. Yes, it's got the whole world, in it hands. It depends on whether it breaks the 3.40 level. RIght now it looks as though this could be the bottom, but if it breaks, yields could go much lower and bond prices much higher, fast. The banking crisis would thereby become self mitigating and the financial markets could get fast, fast, fast relief. But if 3.40 holds and yields start up again, that would mean something else. Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023

Gold's current safe haven status remains enhanced. The daily chart shows that the yellow stuff is set up for a breakout through trend resistance at 1940. That would be very bullish for GC. It not only would point to an intermediate high of 2300, that would complete the huge high base pattern with an even higher implied target.  Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023

 

Another theme is BTC as safe haven. That hangs in the balance as yesterday BTC had a false breakout. It now needs to clear 26,500 to complete that marvelous looking base pattern and tack on 10,000 bucks in a heartbeat. Otherwise, it could easily drop 20% in a heartbeat. 

The threat of contagion of the banking crisis into Europe, where banks are holding a shitload of negative yielding paper and are likely to be in even worse shape than US banks, reversed a long term bullish pattern in the EUR/USD daily chart to something quite the opposite. EUR/USD had been working on a huge reverse head and shoulders over the past 5 months. Suddenly yesterday that morphed into a potential head and shoulders top over the past 2 months. 1.05 is the key sport level here. A break would have a conventional measured move target back to a buck for the euro. 

For moron the markets, see:

• Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023
• Swing Trade Screen Picks – Who Wants to Go Short Here! March 13, 2023
• Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023
• Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
• February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
• Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
• You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023

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[SiP]

Does will follow HUGE cup and handle pattern?

 

 

[SiP]

To some sense of scale here, it's perhaps useful to zoom out a bit on Credit Suisse's 1yr CDS The red circles are (from left to right) the 2008 financial crisis, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the start of the pandemic

[Jimbo]

THE CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD

First a little aside

The best performing SP500 stock in 2022 was.....OXY.

Will it be the best performing in 2023....of course not.

 

Now onto something a little more important.

The Circular FIring Squad 

1/ The FED stops printing

2/. Inflation goes down...but not fast enough....it looks sticky....

3/ The Banks have very large unrealised treasury and MBS bond losses.....

4/  The FED wants rates to go down so the Banks bond losses reduce to a managable size.

5/ But in the meantime the swap counter parties have large losses...how long can they remain solvent....

6/ So the FED/SNB and probably other central banks have to prop them up......

7/ How long they have to prop them up depends on the interest rates going down ...which depends on inflation.....which depends on the FED not printing to prop up the banks and swap counterparties and govenrment defecit spending.

Its all so circular isnt it!!!!!!!  

 

 

 

 

[DrStool]

17 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

THE CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD

First a little aside

The best performing SP500 stock in 2022 was.....OXY.

Will it be the best performing in 2023....of course not.

 

Now onto something a little more important.

The Ciruclar FIring Squad 

1/ The FED stops printing

2/. Inflation goes down...but not fast enough....it looks sticky....

3/ The Banks have very large unrealised treasury and MBS bond losses.....

4/  The FED wants rates to go down so the Banks bond losses reduce to a managable size.

5/ But in the meantime the swap counter parties have large losses...how long can they remain solvent....

6/ So the FED/SNB and probably other central banks have to prop them up.......

7/ How long they have to prop them up depends on the interest rates going down ...which depends on inflation.....which depends on the FED not printing to prop up the banks and swap counterparties and govenrment defecit spending.

Its all so circular isnt it!!!!!!!  

 

Yep. 

[DrStool]

Progress.

But now they need to take out 3870 or same old same old. 

[Jimbo]

THE BIGGEST BOND BUBBLE IN HISTORY

Popped.....

What did they think would happen.....

No warning siren was sounded.

And what was the false narrative from the mainstream financial media.

"Higher interest rates will be good for banks"

What was the narrative here....

"Look out below"

This is what I call "The narrative differential"

[fxfox]

0.50 by the ECB

[Jimi]

The arsonists are promising to backstop the prairie fire with unlimited flammable liquidity. 

[fxfox]

ECB presser starts in 5 mins.

Would be Sir Prized if they would NOT announce a new alphabet soup programme.

[Jimi]

11 minutes ago, fxfox said:

ECB presser starts in 5 mins.

Would be Sir Prized if they would NOT announce a new alphabet soup programme.

She acknowledged that inflation has outpaced ECB’s December estimates, revealing its ungrounded optimism; and then immediately supplies a rosy soft-landing return to 2.0% target by 2025.  

[sandy beach]

“Blackstone Inc. has “substantially” written down the value of a Las Vegas office campus once appraised at ~$500M & allowed mortgage to lapse as CRE prices tumble…$325M CMBS Hughes Center was transferred to a special servicer this month.”

[fxfox]

11 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

“Blackstone Inc. has “substantially” written down the value of a Las Vegas office campus once appraised at ~$500M & allowed mortgage to lapse as CRE prices tumble…$325M CMBS Hughes Center was transferred to a special servicer this month.”

CRE will bring it all down. Within the next 6 months. Patience.

[fxfox]

ECB's Lagarde: Monitoring market tensions closely | Forexlive

 

good comment:

"a long presser for saying we are clueless" 

[sandy beach]

2023 is the year private equity hands in the keys on commercial real estate. The same with asset backed securities - look at car loans for example. The deals can't be done. The Fed and regulators want lending back in the hands regulated banks. That's going to take a deflationary ramp down for private equity, pension funds, wall street and insurance companies. ZIRP-forever and the Fed put made mark-to-unicorn and tax payer bailouts a way of life. We're never going back to those days. This will be painful and it'll take years but it's for the best.