DrStool Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 If the bond rally were to continue, the problem of bank runs would be self mitigating. That's because many of the assets that would need to be sold, could be sold at a profit. But the announcement of a Fed-Treasury-F-DIc bailout changes the equation. The bond rally stopped yesterday. Stocks are rallying today and bonds are selling off. If whales see the big bailout as inflationary, they're going to sell bonds into a massive wave of new supply. The question then becomes how much money the Fed will print in new QE to absorb it, and how much additional consumer inflation would result. Lots of unknowns, which is why we resort to TA now in the short run. To be in the right position if some of this stuff they are throwing against the barn door sticks. From the standpoint of the hourly chart of the 10 year yield, the key pivot point is around 3.68-3.73. Get above that and a renewed selloff would send yields up and prices down. If they can stick it below that level, then there's a chance of a self mitigating situation for the banks. The greater the fear, the more the situation would self correct with a buying panic in bonds. But if the Fed/Treasury/F-dic ploy dampens the fear, the situation would become highly "fluid". As in lighter fluid. Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 On the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures we have a little uptrend line to watch that goes from around 3875 at the NY open to 3890 at the close. Stay above that and hope springs eternal. Below that, and crash potential reawakens. 3895 is also an important resistance level. If they clear that, next target would be the 3920s. But the really big R level is around 3940. Clear that and you'd have a nice base breakout to build upon. Looking the otter way, the key sport levels are 3855 and 3810. Break those and the fun starts for the bears. Right now, they're in a triangle, or just breaking out if they stay above 3880. However, they would hit the DIck Trickle Memorial point in about 2 hours at 3875, which would signal a market in perfect equilibrium. Then nothing would happen until the theater fills with popcorn munching patrons and somebody yells FIRE. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Who Wants to Go Short Here! March 13, 2023 Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023 Looks like BTC is a safe haven. What a base if it breaks out here. That could yield a $5k profit in the blink of an eye. This is a daily chart. Gold looks very interesting. This is also a daily chart. Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023 For moron the markets, see: Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Who Wants to Go Short Here! March 13, 2023 Bailout or Not, Stock Traders Are Should Give the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC the Finger March 13, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 Downtrend broken. All is well. Gold Works On High Base March 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 Maybe the smart move was to short TLT at the 2 hunnert? Who knows… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 Bitcoin on a terror higher, better buy it now while it's still nothing. Tulips anyone??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 5 day cycle projection 3950. aargh. But Resistance at 3924 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 5 day cycle projection now 4005. I smell a bull fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 If this clears 3940, the conventional measured move target would be 4035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 BTC measured move target on the daily 34,000 +/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 We rallied 14% after Bear Stearns… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 The more I think about it, opening the discount window to all banks for qualified paper at par with no haircut, and guaranteeing all deposits is a major policy change that will flood the system with liquidity and enable the banks to endlessly absorb whatever amount of paper the Treasury puts on the market. Hyper inflationary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 hyper moral hazard. It compounds all the policy errors of the past 30 years to the moon. What a shit show we've become. It's no wonder the Nazis are in ascendency everywhere. Sickening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 3 minutes ago, DrStool said: The more I think about it, opening the discount window to all banks for qualified paper at par with no haircut, and guaranteeing all deposits is a major policy change that will flood the system with liquidity and enable the banks to endlessly absorb whatever amount of paper the Treasury puts on the market. Hyper inflationary. Yes, I think so too. All banks which have Treasuries in their fartpolio qualify for that. All but some minor banks maybe have that. As a welcomed side-effect those minor banks will get merged or disappear and the concetration process in the banking landscape goes on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 Moody's downgrades US banking system. Bullish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 This just gets worse and worse Doc. Meanwhile we're have a flight to "quality" by millennials into Bitcoin. What a farce! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 March 2003 March 2009 March 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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