SiP Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 there is no panic here on EM. There are some big moves like hungarian BUX losing 7%, but EMFX stable, same for dollar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 THE BIG BANKS ARE HEDGED But who are they hedged with??? The losses do not go away!!!!!! They still have to be eaten by someone. They are very large ...too large What if they default on the hedges. What if the banks have merely hedged each other in a circular firing squad. AIG would have defaulted on its CDS if the government had not backstoped them to the tune of $120 billion. A similar scenario will play out for the intertest rate hedges. The problem remains. The Government will have to backstop the swaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 AS I SAID They should have never let signature and SVB go. The system is just too fragile. Now the Eccles Eclesiarch has to come out with the "Whatever it takes statement" The sooner the better. Its a complete and total mess, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 No one is talking about the velocity of money and it may finally start to rise..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 SVB is just tech bank. Its not mom and pop, not RE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 13 Author Report Share Posted March 13 6 minutes ago, potatohead said: No one is talking about the velocity of money and it may finally start to rise..... Right. V is the ratio of GDP to M. If M shrinks and GDP is positive, then V goes up. A lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 13 Author Report Share Posted March 13 6 minutes ago, SiP said: SVB is just tech bank. Its not mom and pop, not RE. Bank runs are contagious. And in the era of online banking and social media, instantaneous. There are no dominoes. Just a nuclear explosion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 1 minute ago, DrStool said: Right. V is the ratio of GDP to M. If M shrinks and GDP is positive, then V goes up. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 13 Author Report Share Posted March 13 10 minutes ago, potatohead said: 😄 Although buying T-bills only shrinks M if the US Govt doesn't spend the proceeds and allows Treasury Cash to build up. Meanwhile, if the Fed stops QT and begins printing again, then V will start down again. I have to think about increased Discount Window borrowing will impact M. It depends on what happens to those deposits. They would only leave the system if they are used to pay down debt. Very messy here. Hard to reach firm conclusions. We have to watch the markets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 4k by Tamara? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 *FHLBS TO RAISE $64 BILLION IN SHORT-TERM NOTES OFFERING This new program will be know as the SHort-Term notes offering or SH-T for short 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 13 Author Report Share Posted March 13 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Who Wants to Go Short Here! LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MARCH 13, 2023 For the week ended March 10, there were 3 charts with multiple buy signals as of Thursday or Friday. There were 482 multiple sells. It’s like the night that Wilt scored 100 points. It only happened once. The prior week there were 33 buys and 37 sells. The week before that, the tally was 11 buys and 113 sells. That was a big number on the sell side, suggesting a change of trend in the market. But the setups didn’t look great for entering shorts there. Or so I thought at the time. That was the week to get short. I missed it. I compounded the mistake by choosing 3 longs last week. Needless to say, they did not do well, as tracked from the March 6 closing price. I will close them out as of today’s closing price. The list ended the week with a loss of 0.6% on an average 12 calendar day holding period. I cannot visually review 482 charts. I am looking at as many as possible. As I look at these, the question I have is whether it is too late to go short and do we have the stomach for what are likely to be extreme moves in both directions. We’ve been in a trading range. Trading ranges are meat grinders. Trends with 3% price moves a day are meat cleavers. Right now we have a little of both. Furthermore, there’s just too much noise. Support levels are being challenged and broken, but I have no sense that these breaks will stick. There’s too much mindless intervention, and knee jerk reaction, to have any confidence here. That said, as I went through more than 100 charts in alphabetical order, there were a few that were ordinary, even stodgy looking, bearish setups. I am adding these to the list to short. I will start tracking these as of today’s (March 13) closing price. The next buy round of buy signals should be scalpable. I will be on the lookout for those. I’d like to see a nice bounce that can be shorted. But the next round of good sell signals will be a cycle away. And the current round has come too late for my liking. That said, I’ll take my chances with the 4 that I’ve selected for now. Table and charts below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 13 Author Report Share Posted March 13 24 minutes ago, potatohead said: *FHLBS TO RAISE $64 BILLION IN SHORT-TERM NOTES OFFERING This new program will be know as the SHort-Term notes offering or SH-T for short Eggs sell ent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 I closed Tesla shorts. The market is pricing pivot, thats why bitcoin and other crypto stuff is flying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted March 13 Report Share Posted March 13 is this the start of new bull ? Or its just another leg in the last one and still valid? We even didnt test 3720 on SPX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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