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Equal Librium Market - 3/9/23


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The market is apparently in the second day of a nominal 5 day (expressed as 4 day) cycle up phase. If it makes it through today without blasting off, bears should be in good shape for another death defying plunge. But a little rally this morning that manages to clear the top of the range at 4001, would get the ball rolling for the bulls. 

I like the bears' chances here. The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures shows that the up phase has been flat, and that trend resistance is descending, at around 3990 in the 7 AM hour in New Yawk. Stay below that this morning, and bears' chances improve radically. And even if cleared, bulls would still have some work to do to make their case, particularly around 4000. 

Meanwhile, if the low of 3969 gives way, a little bouncy bouncy in the lower 3960s looks like, then the SHTF. 

Mixed Bag of Signals Screaming, “Walk This Way” March 5, 2023

-hov7

Over at the hourly 10 year Treasury yield chart, bears made their case yesterday, but then stopped short, failing to push the yield above the range of 3.90 to 4.01. But bond bulls can't break out the bubbly either. Stay tuned to this one. The direction of the breakout from the range will tell us all we need to know. 

February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023

-hoy6

But the all time king of frustration may be gold. After a nice looking base breakout on the hourly chart last week, it pulled all the way back to its low. But it has made another nice little scoop bottom. So, maybe finally? 

First things first, it must clear 1829. Gold On Cusp of Brutal Outlook if This Happens March 8, 2023

 

-hoz6

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3 hours ago, DrStool said:

But a little rally this morning that manages to clear the top of the range at 4001, would get the ball rolling for the bulls. 

We are now in a "return to the scene of the crime" pullback. 

-ht13

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50 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

First time ever that M2 has had a negative print since they started tracking it in 1959. Using proxies for M2 the last time this happened was 1929-30.

-- Source: Cameron Crise & Lacy Hunt, Bloomberg

FqyX-gWXsAASGno.jpg

I have been reporting this for many months. It was a given with QT. 
 

It does NOT mean that bond yields will fall. Au contraire! It all but guarantees that they will continue to trend higher until they rev up the presses again. 

https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/

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1 minute ago, DrStool said:

I have been reporting this for many months. It was a given with QT. 
 

It does NOT mean that bond yields will fall. Au contraire! It all but guarantees that they will continue to trend higher until they rev up the presses again. 

https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/

And M will continue to contract, or at most grow very slowly if loan creation can be sustained until QT ends. I doubt that the condition can be met without rising stock prices. And without M growth, I doubt that stock prices can sustain an uptrend. 

But what do I know. 

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28 minutes ago, DrStool said:

And M will continue to contract, or at most grow very slowly if loan creation can be sustained until QT ends. I doubt that the condition can be met without rising stock prices. And without M growth, I doubt that stock prices can sustain an uptrend. 

But what do I know. 

Just wait for all that issuance after the debt ceiling is lifted. 

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52 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

Just wait for all that issuance after the debt ceiling is lifted. 

Exactly. Although it depends on whether they push the deal until all the cash runs out. 

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