DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 They keep managing to do this, while the market ultimately goes nowhere endlessly. Both stocks and bonds have rallied overnight and into the early morning hours. The 10 year yield has pulled back to 4% and stocks look like they are headed to da moon. The ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures hourly bar chart now has a 5 day cycle projection of 4025. The 2-3 day cycle projection is only 4005. If this is another one of those 4 day numbers, then the 4025 area also looks about right. The way the channels set up now, this thing would seem to have a date with 4025 around mid day in New Yak. But there's also a ton of resistance suggested in the 3995-4005 range that they would need to crack. Doing so would clear the base of a nicely formed reverse head and shoulders pattern with a conventional measured move target of 4075. The good news from the bear's perspective is that 5 day cycle momentum has reached the area where these rallies have recently topped out. The bad news is that cycle oscillators aren't quite there yet. It looks like this. Warning! Top Formation In Progress February 27, 2023 And check out how Satan saved the 10 year yield. A pullback to 3.97 would not violate the uptrend. But if they break that, then 3.90 would be next. Who knew! Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 Meanwhile, the yellow shit has scooped out a beautiful rounding reverse head and shoulders bottom. But to activate launch sequence, it needs to clear 1855. The hourly oscillator setup suggests that it's likely. Buckle up. Gold’s Rebound Is Coming! February 28, 2023 For moron the markets, see: Gold’s Rebound Is Coming! February 28, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Can’t Touch This February 27, 2023 Warning! Top Formation In Progress February 27, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 Gold’s Temperature Reaches Absolute Zero February 22, 2023 Bears Challenge Bulls to A Duel – Here’s Who Gets Shot February 21, 2023 You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023 One Gold Indicator Needs to Whipsaw or Will Signal a Secular Top February 14, 2023 How Bears Could Take Charge This Week February 13, 2023 US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 Withholding Taxes Fell Sharply in January February 3, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 3, 2023 Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Something doesn‘t fit. Generally. Given those massive rate hikes in a quite short time, equities should be much much lower. As if there still would be enough liqui out there. But where does this come from? The private hand? But that should at least show up in bank deposits, for example all the money from commuters, which don‘t commute anymore but work remote. They didn‘t put that money under their bed, either they bought stocks, consume more, or that money is in bank deposits…. Again, we are much much too high given those extraordinary rate hikes. And when I look at DAX I ask myself if people have become totally nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 It's the old stock and flow argument on money. So much excess money was created during QE, It continues to provide some support for prices. Just keep in mind that it is constantly diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted March 3, 2023 Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Apparently from the far east-BoJ and PBOC; BoJ continuing to buy debt to suppress yields and PBOC fired up the presses around year end. Seems to have offset Fed/ECB easily in Jan. And Fed helped a bit(just) with TGA and RRP draws: ECB supposedly has done something similar at times. https://www.reuters.com/markets/markets-ride-1-trillion-global-liquidity-wave-mcgeever-2023-02-14/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted March 3, 2023 Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Not sure any comment or metaphor is necessary, but feel free if the moment strikes you. 🙂 Porn Zoom bomb forces cancellation of Fed’s Waller event https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/02/business/zoom-bomb-christopher-waller-federal-reserve/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 3, 2023 Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 This whole shit began overnight in Japan… it makes no fun anymore. It hurts the soul, the inner heart, goes on the nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Trend line convergence here but the 5-day cycle projection points to 4050- 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Amend that to 4045. But it's in flux still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 3, 2023 Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Gaz Naturelle broke the neckline of the inverted H&S, now bombing higher in one big never ending monster fart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 I distribute my natural gas holdings after my high fiber breakfast. But then I accumulate more in the overnight session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 The accumulation distribution cycle in natural gas is quite regular. More so than in most other commodities. The hard commodities in particular often run into resistance and won't break down or out. But after a few days of churning, eventually they move in concert with the natural gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted March 3, 2023 Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Stocks and bonds are like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Last time hourly momo and cycle oscillators were this high was Feb 14. A top. No guarantees. They were even higher on Feb 2. A bigger peak. Warning! Top Formation In Progress February 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 3, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2023 Does anybody know why the market closed early today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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