Jump to content

Drip, Drip, Bounce 3/2/23

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

The Treasury changed the structure of the Daily Treasury Statement in the middle of February. Guys who track this data are going to shit themselves. I had enough familiarity with the format to guess where they moved the withholding tax data.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had to scratch my ass for a few minutes wondering why the withholding tax data in the historical data download disappeared after February 13. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, fxfox said:

PPT at work. Since a year, every goddam time it smells like we could crash, a magic hand appears outta nowhere…

Someday, and maybe that day is not too far off, this will go into reverse and then SHTF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DrStool said:

It’s that time of the month again. The tax collections are complete for February so we know how the jobs market really did for the month. Meanwhile, the BLS will announce its fictitious jobs number for the month a week from tomorrow, which is a week later than usual.

The BLS bases its estimate on a haphazard and poorly conceived survey of employers, which the BLS then manipulates to the point of uselessness. Furthermore, apparently fewer employers are taking part in the survey, rendering this monthly exercise even less accurate than in years past. When it wasn’t very accurate to begin with. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

BOTTOM LINE: Revenues were weak. The jobs number should be weak. But fade any rally on that, both stocks and bonds, because xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxx. 

Here’s what’s critical for you to know. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 


Link to comment
Share on other sites



On 3/2/2023 at 11:27 PM, Jimbo said:


The bank bond losses are a classic grey rhino......

In plain sight but ignored by markets.....

Until they cannot be ignored......

When Silvergate was forced to sell their bonds when their crypto depositors made a dash for the door...

(Note the whale traders who deposited thier funds with Silvergate actually had a brain....they kept there money in Silvergate......all insured by the FDIC rather than leaving it in FTX.....which was insured only by trust in SBF...a very bad strategy indeed) 

They had to recognise a cool billion loss....

And they are just a small bank.

Think of the losses in the larger ones....


Yeah, but FDIC only insures $250k. Not enough for a whale. 



Technically correct doc as far as it goes...the explicit guarantee for $250,000


There is another implicit deposit guarantee provided by the Federal Govenment

Indirectly through the FHLB's

You will notice that the FHLB's will bail out a bank experiencing a deposit run by depositing money into them equivalent to the run.

But it appears that the FHLB will require the bank to run down its liquid investments first to pay out the depositors...hence all the realized bond losses being revealed by the banks - a forced reveal.

See Silvergate, see Signature bank 

The FHLB's are basically providing exit liquidity.....

Providing a withdrawal guarantee for the deposit Whales

It is implicit...but it exists in reality.

And that is all that matters. 

I should have mentioned this in my original post.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...