DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 Market participants will say a final prayer before the market gets flushed today. We are again seeing normal 2-3 day and 5 day frequencies on the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures. Those cycles just made concurrent highs in the premarket morning hours Now we could get a 2-3 day cycle low this morning, but if there's no material bounce, or a weak one, as the lows are tested, the outlook for the rest of the day will be dire for the bulls. And bears, who have been forced to be reluctant shorts by the constant vicious whipsaws (you're looking at him), may miss out on the next big move down. The number to watch on the downside is 3960. There should be a rebound from there. If not, batten down the hatches. The first significant stopping point would probably be 3940, which is the bottom of a developing megaphone at the lows? Who ever heard of such a thing. Megaphones develop on the way up, sometimes as tops, and sometimes as consolidations. But on the way down? Not in my memory. On the other hand, if the 3969 low holds, look for a rebound to 3999. Then we'll see. Longer term view. Meanwhile, the bond market had the benefit of a $48 billion T-bill paydown stuffing cash into institutional accounts. It will have no such support in the days ahead. In fact, the opposite. I speck a breakout in the 10 year yield above 4%, with no looking back. Here's the hourly chart. US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook For moron the markets, see: Gold’s Temperature Reaches Absolute Zero February 22, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Ambiguity Central February 21, 2023 Bears Challenge Bulls to A Duel – Here’s Who Gets Shot February 21, 2023 You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023 One Gold Indicator Needs to Whipsaw or Will Signal a Secular Top February 14, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Meat Grinder Prevails February 13, 2023 How Bears Could Take Charge This Week February 13, 2023 US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now January 26, 2023 Withholding Taxes Fell Sharply in January February 3, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 Was there some news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 2-3 day cycle projection 3955-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 day cycle projection 3945. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 Last week it was daily chart indicators rolling over .. now it's the weekly charts' turn .. $$ leaving the market at a steady clip including mine. Down to nine positions now and two of those heading for the guillotine on Mon 😶 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 2.24/CPE/SLV ...? So far, so good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 TCG, Not sure if you check the board anymore but you asked me to let you know when GDXD pops $9.50, well today is the day. Would like to hear your thoughts but understand if you don't respond. Godspeed, WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, DrStool said: 2-3 day cycle projection 3955-60. Done 1 hour ago, DrStool said: 1 day cycle projection 3945. Close enough for government work. Bears Challenge Bulls to A Duel – Here’s Who Gets Shot February 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 Also multiple trendline juncture. If this breaks, air down to 3910, which is next serious sport level and the conventional measured move target of the top breakdown. Bears Challenge Bulls to A Duel – Here’s Who Gets Shot February 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 day cycle projection 3910-15. At least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 Hybrid working expected to push US office vacancies to record by 2030: Hybrid working will push US office vacancies 55 per cent above their pre-pandemic levels to a record 1.1bn square feet by 2030, according to a stark industry forecast that attempts to quantify the damage to the commercial property sector wrought by changing work patterns. https://www.ft.com/content/ad2bfd65-0dd8-42d5-925b-0a53a6d80cb6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 15 minutes ago, sandy beach said: Hybrid working expected to push US office vacancies to record by 2030: Hybrid working will push US office vacancies 55 per cent above their pre-pandemic levels to a record 1.1bn square feet by 2030, according to a stark industry forecast that attempts to quantify the damage to the commercial property sector wrought by changing work patterns. https://www.ft.com/content/ad2bfd65-0dd8-42d5-925b-0a53a6d80cb6 I have to chuckle because over the years I've watched the erstwhile ETF to short REITS, SRS, and I figured a long time ago that no possible crash in that market will probably ever cause that POS to get off the floor. All time high 35,400, currently 17. Maybe I will buy 10 for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 hours ago, sandy beach said: Hybrid working expected to push US office vacancies to record by 2030: Hybrid working will push US office vacancies 55 per cent above their pre-pandemic levels to a record 1.1bn square feet by 2030, according to a stark industry forecast that attempts to quantify the damage to the commercial property sector wrought by changing work patterns. https://www.ft.com/content/ad2bfd65-0dd8-42d5-925b-0a53a6d80cb6 I was warning about the coming commercial real estate collapse as soon as the pandemic emptied out offices and retail stores. And they were massively overpriced to begin with because the Fed had driven cap rates from where they had always been 8-11% to 1-3%. Even without the pandemic, collapse was guaranteed. This will be worse than any prior collapse and the 87-91 S&L crisis was bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 24, 2023 Report Share Posted February 24, 2023 BABA round tripped from $88 to $120 back to $88 in less than 2 months. (China reopening not going so gouda??? Don't worry the new hopium of "Ai" is sure to work ) The other flying monkeys in this monkey see, monkey do, monkey pee all over you rally, including TSLA, META & NVDA, will all round trip in time... keep buying the dips and you deserve everything you are going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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