DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 It's an inverse head and shoulders with a conventional measured move target of 4045-50 on the ES 24 hour hourly futures chart, which mimics the cash S&P 500. But it will get there only if it clears the neckline of this pattern. That neckline is at 4015-18. Cycle structures actually favor the bears a bit here. The market has switched back to idling in 2.5 and 5 day waves over the past 10 days. Both are due to top out right now, around 8 AM New Yak time. Cycle oscillators have been rising, but have turned flat at the zero line in the past couple of hours. If they do break out upwards, the first resistance and initial target looks like 4030. If they don't break out topside here, then we gotta look for the bottom of the range again at 3977. First at least a bounce there. Meanwhile, for the big picture. Bears Challenge Bulls to A Duel – Here’s Who Gets Shot Working in the bulls favor, today only, is a US Treasury Blue Plate Special. It is settling the paydown of $48 billion in Treasuries today, only partly offsetting the $73 billion in coupon issuance settlements scheduled for tomorrow and next Tuesday. And it pales in comparison to the $210 billion in net new bills that the Treasury slammed onto the market since Jan 31. I will post a longer term review and outlook in this week's Liquidity Trader updates tomorrow. Here's the latest on that. The hourly chart of the 10 year yield leaves little doubt on where this is headed. This move started when the Treasury decided to go whole hog on massive T-bill issuance while paying down internal IOUs to circumvent the debt ceiling restrictions. US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook For moron the markets, see: Gold’s Temperature Reaches Absolute Zero February 22, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Ambiguity Central February 21, 2023 Bears Challenge Bulls to A Duel – Here’s Who Gets Shot February 21, 2023 You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023 One Gold Indicator Needs to Whipsaw or Will Signal a Secular Top February 14, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Meat Grinder Prevails February 13, 2023 How Bears Could Take Charge This Week February 13, 2023 US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now January 26, 2023 Withholding Taxes Fell Sharply in January February 3, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 They have it all set up for the open. I feel a sucker play coming on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 oop there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 At the crossroads headed for 10:30 turn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 46 minutes ago, DrStool said: oop there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 Some things are predictable. But are they predictable often enough? And are they tradable? To trade, or not to trade, that is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 Note that we do not have a sell signal yet on the hourly. I drilled down to 30 and 15 minutes. No signals on those either. Cue Jaws theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 Or the Godfather theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 23, 2023 Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 TSLA & META both down... flying monkeys not playing along (could change on a dime). AAPL down... not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 Hourly oscillators edge to the sell side. If it sticks for the whole hour, coming from the neutral zone, would suggest a big drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 23, 2023 Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 Wacky bill paydown today. Then coupons. Juggling for who knows why. Well on it's face it's to lengthen maturity. As if it makes any difference. https://treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/announcement-results-press-releases/cash-pay-down/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 23, 2023 Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted February 23, 2023 Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 25 minutes ago, potatohead said: Is that a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 23, 2023 Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 37 minutes ago, potatohead said: „Working remote“ megatrend AND rising rates in a pace last seen decades ago is a toxic combination. It takes a while till this finally shows up in all its brutality, but it will. The results will be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 day cycle projection 3965-73, done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.