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Long Weak End Ending Starts a New Weak 2/21/23


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Lest there be any doubt what crushed this market this month. 

Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly
Held Maturing
Net New Cash or
(Pay Down)
02/28/2023 Bills $186,000 $177,998 $8,002
02/28/2023 Coupons $144,000 $93,232 $50,768
02/24/2023 Coupons $22,000 $0 $22,000
02/23/2023 Bills $142,000 $189,998 $(47,998)
02/21/2023 Bills $171,000 $147,983 $23,017
02/16/2023 Bills $133,000 $98,994 $34,006
02/15/2023 Coupons $96,000 $67,118 $28,882
02/14/2023 Bills $171,000 $137,980 $33,020
02/09/2023 Bills $108,000 $99,009 $8,991
02/07/2023 Bills $171,000 $119,988 $51,012
02/02/2023 Bills $108,000 $98,997 $9,003
01/31/2023 Bills $171,000 $120,002 $50,998
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And if you think money is coming out of the Strategic Cash Reserve. Thimk again! Down just $2 billion since 4 weeks ago. $2 billion out of more than $2 trillion. That's one tenth of 1 percent. And what's $2 billion against the Treasury creaming the market with $270 billion in new supply over 3 weeks! 

And that includes the offset of a massive paydown on Thursday. 

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1 minute ago, DrStool said:

And if you think money is coming out of the Strategic Cash Reserve. Thimk again! Down just $2 billion since 4 weeks ago. $2 billion out of more than $2 trillion. That's one tenth of 1 percent. And what's $2 billion against the Treasury creaming the market with $270 billion in new supply over 3 weeks! 

And that includes the offset of a massive paydown on Thursday. 

That‘s quite sick.

But that the „SCR“ is 2 trillion big… hm… that a lotta dough to support the market when needed, right?

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3 minutes ago, fxfox said:

That‘s quite sick.

But that the „SCR“ is 2 trillion big… hm… that a lotta dough to support the market when needed, right?

There's always a lot of money in MMFs. People have to want to use it. The only one's moving money out are the institutional holders and they're probably just moving to the 13 week bills to lock in those fat 90 day returns. 

You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects

 

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I was getting a little bulled up in January because I thought the Treasury would pay down debt under the debt ceiling, but the tricky bastards changed strategy this time. As soon as I woke up to that, I recognized that it would be curtains. CURTAINS I TELL YA!!!!! for the market. 

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9 minutes ago, DrStool said:

There's always a lot of money in MMFs. People have to want to use it. The only one's moving money out are the institutional holders and they're probably just moving to the 13 week bills to lock in those fat 90 day returns. 

You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects

 

Ah ok, could be just a shift from overnight to short term. The yield of short term paper is just sick. Normally all those insurers will or already have sold stocks and real estate and completely shift to interest rate products.

So who is the bagholder of all those ultra risky junk stocks like Lucid, Rivian etc.? J6P is. They gonna get so sooo cruzified, holy crap! 

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