DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 Yesterday I reported on how new US Treasury debt issuance policy is crushing the stock market rally. It's policy, and it will continue. The report delves into the mechanics of how, and why, the government can continue to issue massive amounts of debt despite the debt ceiling. It completely changes the outlook for stocks and bonds. And we know how long it will last. The effects of the policy were clear in the markets yesterday as the Treasury announced another $63 billion in net new issuance for next week, along with $33 billion already announced. While the pace of issuance will slow from here on, it will still be a huge problem for the market to absorb. Days like yesterday will become norm, rather than the exception. Yesterday, the ES 24 hour S&P futures broke a triangle pattern. Triangle breakdowns often lead to explosive moves. Yesterday was no exception. The futures hit a sport line overnight, bounced weakly, and subsequently plunged through that. Now, 6:30 AM ET the futures are testing another important sport line at 4053. The most important sport level below that, the January 31 low of 3894, is in the market's sights. The market has been running in a 4 day cycle in recent weeks. The low of that cycle is due right now. This cycle has been the manifestation of an apparent merger of the nominal 3 day and 5 day cycles. I would not bet the farm on the duration remaining at 4 days, although I would expect another minor bounce here. The 5 day cycle projection is 4044. If we do a 4 day basis its 4056, right here. However, there's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 4018. And using the flat base of the complex top pattern as a measuring basis, the measured move target of this move is 4000-4010. Any of these are plausible targets based on the location of sport lines on this chart. As you can see, there's a nice little crash channel working, and hourly oscillators are buried at basement levels. That cuts both ways. As long as they stay this low, the market will be in crash mode. The first low is unlikely to be THE low. I'd expect to see a significant positive divergence develop before a decent sized bounce. For moron the markets, see: US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Here are Two on the Buy Side that Stick Out February 6, 2023 Rally Looks Great But Don’t Chase It Now! Here’s Why February 6, 2023 SOS – Goldtanic Hits Iceberg, Ship Sinking February 5, 2023 Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now January 26, 2023 Long Live the Bear. The Bear is Dead January 17, 2023 A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Debt Ceiling January 16, 2023 Withholding Taxes Fell Sharply in January February 3, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 Bonds are also persistently being sold since the end of January. The 10-year-yield is headed higher. We are back in no safe havens mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 after reading your report and watching the michigan sentiment survey on Inflation UNIVERSITY MICHIGAN 1 YR INFLATION PRELIM ACTUAL 4.2% (FORECAST 4%, PREVIOUS 3.9%) I have come to the conclusion the whole thing is rigged to fit the narrative Lee lays out. The Treasury's demand for liquidity is masked by a narrative that provides the excuse for price volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 Bit of a pop off 4060 in progress I see. From looking at my Daily Charts...that area looks like the last bastion of safety before the floodgates open a little wider. I have to be honest...if this holds...a retest is not out of the question. I'd personally like to see the dam break here...but, you know the rules. A Pivot in Time Until we get some form of confirmation...if anyone is sitting around bored. Perhaps you can find the time to answer a couple of questions: How many days are there from the low on October 13th to the recent high on February 2nd? That is 1/2 of? Here a little...there a little...until it adds up to something that no one can take away from you. TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, The CoinGuy said: Bit of a pop off 4060 in progress I see. From looking at my Daily Charts...that area looks like the last bastion of safety before the floodgates open a little wider. I have to be honest...if this holds...a retest is not out of the question. I'd personally like to see the dam break here...but, you know the rules. A Pivot in Time Until we get some form of confirmation...if anyone is sitting around bored. Perhaps you can find the time to answer a couple of questions: How many days are there from the low on October 13th to the recent high on February 2nd? That is 1/2 of? Here a little...there a little...until it adds up to something that no one can take away from you. TCG 112;224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 SPX trying to fight gravity, the higher dollar and yields might be a load they find too much to carry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 day cycle low is weakly established, not carved in stone. If broken, look for Friday afternoon carnage. Rally Looks Great But Don’t Chase It Now! Here’s Why February 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 Treasuries also getting sold. 10 year yield surges toward measured move target of 3.80 from the base on the hourly chart. US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 Weekly bar perspective on Bittercoin. Rally Looks Great But Don’t Chase It Now! Here’s Why February 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 From the pandemic low...yields have been in a "secular" bull market. Please remember this when you view my next chart posted. 😉, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 US Dollar Index vs. S&P 500. Weekly bars long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 day cycle up phase, off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 That pop off 4060...unfortunately felt pretty solid. Yesterday's decline...well, it needed confirmation. Although, personally speaking...I think the next two weeks should get quite exciting. TCG oh...and.. That SPX vs YLD vs USD chart is...interesting. I'm going to have to take a few days to mull that over. I've never looked at the relationship between the three in that manner. I like that chart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: That pop off 4060...unfortunately felt pretty solid. Yesterday's decline...well, it needed confirmation. Although, personally speaking...I think the next two weeks should get quite exciting. TCG oh...and.. That SPX vs YLD vs USD chart is...interesting. I'm going to have to take a few days to mull that over. I've never looked at the relationship between the three in that manner. I like that chart... That's just dollar vs. stocks. I see no correlation over the long haul. Sometimes they move together, sometimes they move inversely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted February 10, 2023 Report Share Posted February 10, 2023 Nevermind Doc...I read your explanation incorrectly. I thought it was a correlation chart between bond yields and the dollar VS the stock market. After a closer look...nope. Smile... I'm working on six things at once. TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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