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Price is the Final Arbiter 2/8/23

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Thanks to FxFox for reminding me of that thought that I've posted many times through the years, but have neglected lately. 

Feb 7, 2023 2:20 AM ET, fxfox said:

When we look at the price action alone, without knowing anything about liquidity, the FED, P/C ratio, economic circumstance or whatever, then we have to say: Price action is bullish. From the monthly down to the daily. In things like the Semis it is even ultra bullish.

As Doc siad even 20 years ago: "Price is the final arbiter".

I recommend always to have a look at monthly charts too. There you see things more clearly. Many many stocks have already broken their downtrend from 2021 or 2022 highs, or are not far away from doing so. 

I might add that not only is it the final arbiter. It is the only arbiter. All of the arguments about news, and fundamentals and, yes, even liquidity, are pointless in the absence of good price analytics. And good price analytics alone will lead to good trading decisions. They are the only sole line of analysis that will do that consistently. None of the others will.   

In fact, the best traders I have observed in 22 and a half years of publishing THE Capitalstool, focused on price alone. They had certain chart keys, and an intuitive understanding of trends, trend extensions, patterns and inflection points, that worked fantastically well. Without considering anything else whatsoever. They just stayed glued to their charts. 

Yeah, it's fun to argue about all this other shit that Wall Street, it's media whores, and clown criminal government policy makers use to distract us from the only thing that matters. But that's what it is. Shit. Don't be distracted by all the shit. Stay focused on price and all will be nice. 

Here we focus only on the intraday and a little day to day. For the longer term price considerations, I invite you to join me at Lee Adler's Technical Trader. Which reminds me that two of my favorite Stoolies have let their subscriptions lapse due to outdated credit card info. So don't forget to renew if you want to. Contact me for info on that. We can have a nice chat too! In fact, I'm happy to answer questions about the service from anyone, so don't be shy about sending me a note. 

On to today's regularly sheduled (using the Brit pronunciation) program. We had plenty of excitement yesterday, but what did it accomplish? Meh, not much. Same trading range as the past 5 days, with another pullback to the scene of yesterday's crime under way this morning. At this point, I can only take a less than educated guess on the bounds of the short term uptrend channel for today. With that caveat, I have drawn an approximate guess on the chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures below. 

Based on this, 4144 looks like the critical infartion point at this hour, 6-7 AM in NY. If that holds, up we go. But the recent 4 day cycle as manifest on the hourly oscillators has triggered a sell signal already. And the 5 day cycle projection of 4177 was just about kissed on the first Powell-wow rally yesterday. So, probability seems to favor the bears today.

-7-2o

I'm ready to press the sell everything button on my heavy heavy long trading port from yesterday. I came in long yesterday, and got longer during the day. Smart right. Nope. I didn't buy the dips. I bought the rips and got stranded every time. My profit for the day was minuscule thanks to my intraday ineptitude. I'm too old and too slow for this.  But hopefully, I'm able to impart some semi useful information to you in the process. 

On that note, I wish you Happy Trades!

Some trades are happy ones,
Others will lose.

It's the way you ride the trade that counts,
Here's a happy one for youse.

Happy trades to you,
Until we short again.
Happy trades to you,
Keep buying until then.

Who cares about the Fed when we're together?
Just buy a stock, and bring the sunny weather.

Happy trades to you,
Until we short again.

For moron the markets, see:

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

Edited  by DrStool

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I fiddled with the channel a bit. Might be a low here. 4 day cycle high ideally due 2 PM ET today. 

-7-w-

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43 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I might add that not only is it the final arbiter. It is the only arbiter. All of the arguments about news, and fundamentals and, yes, even liquidity, are pointless in the absence of good price analytics. And good price analytics alone will lead to good trading decisions. They are the only sole line of analysis that will do that consistently. None of the others will.   

In 110% complete agreement.  This is excellent stuff Doc.  That's two days in a row and I do believe that qualifies as being on a roll...😊.

1656771844_SPXgapobservation-February82023.jpg.d308287e1b3e8201ff1f311d76681c57.jpg

I like the rejection yesterdays candle gave us at 4100...I'll be watching for follow-thru(aka: confirmation) that the bulls are still in charge.

For today and the rest of the week...I'm keeping it simple.  I'm watching this gap...and what happens shortly thereafter.

Famous turn dates in February are 12-13th, 16-17th...and as of late...the 24th.  Less famous...19-20th.

Again...From Missouri.  Show me...

TCG

 

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