DrStool Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 I see no sign of anything more than that on the intraday chart yet. Here it is, the 24 hour ES, S&P futures hourly chart. I'll be back. or moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Bulls Win This Week January 30, 2023 Stock Market Heads for the Super Bowl – Oddsmakers Pick the Bulls January 30, 2023 Gold Takes a Breather January 27, 2023 Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now January 26, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Energetic Buys and ShortsJanuary 23, 2023 Nothing is BrokenJanuary 23, 2023 Gold Going Higher January 18, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Whoa! Just Wait Till Next Week! January 17, 2023 Long Live the Bear. The Bear is Dead January 17, 2023 A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Debt Ceiling January 16, 2023 Withholding Taxes Are Soaring January 6, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Well, I think they need a breather, but what I think doesn't matter. They don't think so, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Treasury continues to pound the market with new T-bill issuance. Janet must be a magician. They have to be drawing down internal self debt at a rapid clip to do this. I need to do a deep dive on the Daily Treasury Statement to see how they're doing it. Not sure it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, DrStool said: Treasury continues to pound the market with new T-bill issuance. Janet must be a magician. They have to be drawing down internal self debt at a rapid clip to do this. I need to do a deep dive on the Daily Treasury Statement to see how they're doing it. Not sure it matters. Weird. How can the market absorb this? Margin lending by banks which acts like a Ponzi scheme right now so to say cause market goes up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Margin and repo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 And RRP slush fund drawdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 $200 billion drawdown since Jan 5. I don't count the Dec 31 total because that was just window dressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 The $2 trillion + still in Fed RRPs is excess liquidity. 90% of it is held by MMFs. Who holds MMFs? Investors. Largely institutional investors. So if they get bullish there is PLENTY of cash to support a rally. The Fed created a monster with all the rate suppression and tricky tools on their balance sheet. They don't have a clue how to manage all this shit. We could have another massive blowoff here, and then a crash for the ages. With $2 trillion in ready cash, anything is possible. Anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Being as long as I am, I don't want to jump off a runaway freight train before the destination. I'll use trailing stops to take me out, and I'll rebuy the pullbacks if the setups are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, DrStool said: The $2 trillion + still in Fed RRPs is excess liquidity. 90% of it is held by MMFs. Who holds MMFs? Investors. Largely institutional investors. So if they get bullish there is PLENTY of cash to support a rally. The Fed created a monster with all the rate suppression and tricky tools on their balance sheet. They don't have a clue how to manage all this shit. We could have another massive blowoff here, and then a crash for the ages. With $2 trillion in ready cash, anything is possible. Anything. Wow. Just WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 Trade the charts. Dispense with preconceived notions of what is likely, or what we want to happen. The market does not care what you think. Our job is to make money from it. That's all. It's just a gimmick for professionals to relieve the masses of their money. My experience with that downgrade yesterday was a perfect case in point. Likewise, getting shook out of AMD was another. I didn't play that one like the pros did. It's a shame. I coulda been a contendah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, DrStool said: Trade the charts. Dispense with preconceived notions of what is likely, or what we want to happen. The market does not care what you think. Our job is to make money from it. That's all. It's just a gimmick for professionals to relieve the masses of their money. My experience with that downgrade yesterday was a perfect case in point. Likewise, getting shook out of AMD was another. I didn't play that one like the pros did. It's a shame. I coulda been a contendah. Yes right. Charts rule. Regarding the pro's: Well, they have other connections, that's why they are pro's. And we are not. But being good mafiosi like they are, they leave enough crumbs below the table for rats like us. We just have to pick them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 The stock that got downgraded yesterday is now up 15% from where I bought the deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted February 2 Report Share Posted February 2 Market interest rates crash in Europe. Se, like predicted: If there is anyone who will give in it will be the ECB. The FED has a dual mandate. The ECB has multiple mandates, which after all are not handable. That's why on the long run I would always prefer to hold the USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 2 Author Report Share Posted February 2 It's now trading above the level where the downgrade was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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