SiP Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Fed pivot is bearish for stocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 OK. I willl go long once it breaks above 25k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 BTC 25k is really important. I stressed that couple times (actually something around 24.5). BTW, Cathie Ark is having a headline - best month (25%+ increase) ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 22 minutes ago, SiP said: BTC 25k is really important. I stressed that couple times (actually something around 24.5). BTW, Cathie Ark is having a headline - best month (25%+ increase) ever. Yep, 24500-25000 area, there is multiple stuff, I posted that at page 1 of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, fxfox said: I agree. Watch the BoJ VERY closely. IF they would stop easing, that would be massivly bearish for global markets. Not likely, because the other two will be easing. It's like rugby. They toss the ball to the next guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, SiP said: Fed pivot is bearish for stocks Interest rates are irrelevant. There's no such thing as a rate pivot. The Fed does not control interest rates by making market following pronouncements on the Fed Funds rate, which is truly a Fake Funds rate, since there's effectively no Fed Funds market. The only pivot that matters is the pivot from shrinking the Fed balance sheet to growing it. In other words, the Fed directs the supply of money. Interest rates are the price of money. They're determined by the interaction of the supply of money (aka credit or liquidity), with the demand for money (credit or liquidity). The Fed merely adjusts its published fake rate to reflect the facts on the ground as they show the price of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, DrStool said: Not likely, because the other two will be easing. It's like rugby. They toss the ball to the next guy. Yes, that‘s almost 100% certain. Of course the BoJ did not what they did in Q4 2022 without consultation with the FED and the ECB first. 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Btw, I haven‘t read anything about the impact of the debt ceiling on Twitter or other stuff in the internet. Seems like almost no one realizes that it is actiually bullish for stocks. In fact most say it is bearish. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 I've been reporting on market effects of debt ceiling impasses since the first big one in 2011. I never had any doubt that if Treasury supply was restricted that that would be bullish, if not for both asset classes, at least for one of them. And that when news of a settlement hit the papers, that would be a qunitessential sell the news moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 There are always mitigating factors. The last 3 debt ceiling kabuki theaters were under the QE regime. This one is under QT. As you pointed out, the Fed will need an aggressive response when the ceiling is lifted. I would not rule out a temporary program to absorb the new issuance. It will be a form of temporary QE, but the Fed will call it something else. They are monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 hours ago, DrStool said: There are always mitigating factors. The last 3 debt ceiling kabuki theaters were under the QE regime. This one is under QT. As you pointed out, the Fed will need an aggressive response when the ceiling is lifted. I would not rule out a temporary program to absorb the new issuance. It will be a form of temporary QE, but the Fed will call it something else. They are monsters. But they are our monsters. So… there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Silver had a potential bearish reversal this week when it dropped below its 10 week MA intra week but didn't close the week below it. It potentially made a 40 week cycle high 3 weeks ago but has to close below its 10 week MA(currently 23.46) next week to confirm it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Gold continues to grind higher towards 1965-1999. 24 weeks have passed since the last weekly cycle high. This is a bullish cycle like we last had in 2019-2020 so just like then it may go higher for another 3-4 weeks. A weekly close below 1911 would indicate a bearish reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 SP500 on the weekly chart the equivalent of the Golden Cross, is a crossover between the 10 week and 40 week MAs which already occurred this week. Going back to the 2009 low, every time that happened confirmed the start of a new bull market or a new leg up in a bull market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 SP500 almost hit 4100 and closed the day with an upper wick which is a hint of a potential pullback early next week. If it pulls back the target would be the 10 DMA. Overal the rally could continue into February 3-6 and get to at least the gap resistance at 4203. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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