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Absolute Market Clarity 01/26/23


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Posted

So, does QT matter? Or is it like Ewoof-sometimes right on, sometimes meaning nothing.

There hasn't been too much yet, but the pace has picked up since Sept-and most of the time since then (post Oct 13)has been SWUP. 

Still (just) below early Dec high, and of course the August high(biggest level for me)

Seen a few scattered thoughts along the line of: 'maybe Fed raises only 25's now but cranks up QT pace alongside that'.

Posted
2 hours ago, TurdButter said:

So, does QT matter? Or is it like Ewoof-sometimes right on, sometimes meaning nothing.

 

It matters over the longer run. In the short run, such as now, there are things that will offset.  

Posted

Pronounced negative divergence. If they roll over here, there's a shot at significant downside. 

On the other hand they've already broke out of a reverse head and shoulders that could turn out to be a bottom. It measures to 4120. So if they start to move up, buckle up. 

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