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Absolute Market Clarity 01/26/23

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fxfox

So, does QT matter? Or is it like Ewoof-sometimes right on, sometimes meaning nothing.

There hasn't been too much yet, but the pace has picked up since Sept-and most of the time since then (post Oct 13)has been SWUP. 

Still (just) below early Dec high, and of course the August high(biggest level for me)

Seen a few scattered thoughts along the line of: 'maybe Fed raises only 25's now but cranks up QT pace alongside that'.

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2 hours ago, TurdButter said:

So, does QT matter? Or is it like Ewoof-sometimes right on, sometimes meaning nothing.

 

It matters over the longer run. In the short run, such as now, there are things that will offset.  

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Pronounced negative divergence. If they roll over here, there's a shot at significant downside. 

On the other hand they've already broke out of a reverse head and shoulders that could turn out to be a bottom. It measures to 4120. So if they start to move up, buckle up. 

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