DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Report Posted January 26, 2023 We've had some confusion and angst lately about the direction of stock prices. Well let me say this about that. Let me be absolutely clear. The 1 day bars of the ES 24 hour S&P fucutures show us clearly over time exactly where the market has been. Of that, you should have no doubt. We are where we are because we came from where we came. And it is from here... and only from here... that we take the next step. There is no room for confusion. No room for doubt. We will and we shall... Overcome. Yeah, that's it. Overcome. But until that day, it is for us but to do or die until we see the whites of their eggs. And then. Only then my friends, will we say, this was their finest hour! And so I say to you now, with clarity in your mind and heart, go forth. Sally into the valley of death, you 600! And we shall emerge victorious. Amen. The foregoing written and produced by ChatbotDrS. And now, we look at the hourly bars to take a guess about what happens today. First, you should know that I went into last night and held for this morning's open, heavily long, as long as I have ever been (which at my age is quite an accomplishment). This is as good a contrary indicator as when FxFox emerges from his den to appear here, as he forages for food for his young. We have crossed the Rubicon this morning at 6 AM US ET. The fuguetures are rangebound. Hourly cycle oscillators are holding weakly in positive territory. Momentum is stuck at the zero line. The long term trendline from the January 2022 market top is now sport. I suspect the market will just sit on that and rotate. But one thing is certain. The market will be rangebound between 4040 and 3940, until it isn't. You pays your money and takes your chances. And that's the way it is, January 26, 2023. Cliche Day. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Energetic Buys and ShortsJanuary 23, 2023 Nothing is BrokenJanuary 23, 2023 Gold Going Higher January 18, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Whoa! Just Wait Till Next Week! January 17, 2023 Long Live the Bear. The Bear is Dead January 17, 2023 A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Debt Ceiling January 16, 2023 Withholding Taxes Are Soaring January 6, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 As for the Treasury market, now in the throes of a debt ceiling lockdown, it too is at an infartion point. The 10 year yield is on the verge of a buy signal, which is to say, a sell signal for the bond market in terms of price. But it's not a given yet. The next few days will tell. If they break below the 200 day MA the 10 year yield should head for 3.15. But if those yields start upticking from here, it will be another sell signal for the bond market. Liquidity Trader update to be published this afternoon.
Jorma Posted January 26, 2023 Report Posted January 26, 2023 I regret mentioning news "House Republicans are mulling an attempt to buy time for further negotiations on federal spending and deficits by passing one or more short-term suspensions of the statutory debt ceiling this summer, including potentially lining up the deadline with the end of the fiscal year Sept. 30." https://rollcall.com/2023/01/25/house-gop-considering-clean-short-term-debt-limit-suspension/ So supply is on the way and when is the only question. The dufus revolutionaries in the House have gotten an offer they can't refuse. Otherwise, when I succumb to the temptation to check the news I always go here. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=world+weekly+news&atb=v348-1&ia=images&iax=images
fxfox Posted January 26, 2023 Report Posted January 26, 2023 As the data from 8:30 am EST shows, the economy is running hot. So if the FED gives in under these circumstances I declare the FED finally as insane. They MUST MUST MUST at least raise by 0.50 or this thing will go into the stratosphere.
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 What data? I'm working on a report. I missed it. But I told you so. January 6. Withholding Taxes Are Soaring
The CoinGuy Posted January 26, 2023 Report Posted January 26, 2023 Over 4031 starts punching holes in my boat...I'll give it awhile to probe but I'm not hanging around long if there is volume to back it up. I'm coming off an excellent year....I'm not looking to give anything back. Oh...uh...Good morning gentlemen. TCG
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 Market keep's this up and it will turn me into a buy and holder.
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Jorma said: I regret mentioning news "House Republicans are mulling an attempt to buy time for further negotiations on federal spending and deficits by passing one or more short-term suspensions of the statutory debt ceiling this summer, including potentially lining up the deadline with the end of the fiscal year Sept. 30." https://rollcall.com/2023/01/25/house-gop-considering-clean-short-term-debt-limit-suspension/ So supply is on the way and when is the only question. The dufus revolutionaries in the House have gotten an offer they can't refuse. Otherwise, when I succumb to the temptation to check the news I always go here. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=world+weekly+news&atb=v348-1&ia=images&iax=images Yeah, but liquidity news is good.
The CoinGuy Posted January 26, 2023 Report Posted January 26, 2023 Doc... I'd consider a break out above 4100 to crack the 2008 pattern I've been following since January 2022. I'd be forced to join you... Best, TCG
WTF Posted January 26, 2023 Report Posted January 26, 2023 When the bears turn bullish, I think the bounce is about over. Who's left to buy? Just a thought...
fxfox Posted January 26, 2023 Report Posted January 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, DrStool said: Market keep's this up and it will turn me into a buy and holder. you mean like those who bought IBM in Dec 72? Then waited till 82 to go break even, only to see it going sub 10 in 93. You mean those bag n' holders?
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 I was trading then. The Nifty Fifty. Quotes on a Bunker Ramo. Standing by the ticker on Thursday afternoon waiting for M1, and then Kaufman's pronouncement on what it meant.
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 The tape moved at the rate of about 3-4 trades per minute in August 74. 5000 shares was a block trade.
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 Commission on 100 shares of stock was $125.
DrStool Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Posted January 26, 2023 And the old traders would say, "Whatever they tell you to do, do the opposite!"
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