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If at First You Don't Suck, Cede 1/25/23

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The bulls tried again to punch it through the long term trendline from the January 2022 market high, and failed. That does not mean that they are done trying. Today is day 4 of the usual 5 day trading cycle. If they continue to slop around near the trendline, then this is a consolidation, and they'll punch it through on the next cycle. 

For now, they've already hit a 3 day cycle low projection of 3982 on hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures. . But there's still a one day cycle projection of 3970. If they do get that low this morning, it would diminish, but not eliminate, the likelihood of punching the major downtrend line on the next 5 day cycle up phase. But no doubt, they'll try. For bears to have a shot at regaining control, we'd need to see numbers below 3965. 

If they stay above that, the word of the day is Consolidate. Consolidate. Dance to the music. 


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Not exactly back...just passing through, but I do appreciate the well wishes. 


I'm actually a severe introvert so it's better that I walk away when nothing is going on that is conducive to making a few trades.  Gives me time to study and meditate...mull things over for awhile.  I never like to be in a rush.  That behavior is what consistently keeps the Coin coming into in my pockets.

Yesterday was a doozy...

Didn't know I'd be spending the rest of the day/night in the ER.  Actually just got home 15 minutes ago.  Things have been going well for months, and then out of the blue.  High Fever, rapid heart rate...turned out to be an inflamed and infected diverticulitis.  At least it isn't/wasn't worse.

The majority of my problems from last year they were misdiagnosing because they couldn't figure out what was going on...and believe me I have the best medical team in the business.

Turned out to be a couple of rotten teeth under some old caps in my mouth.  So...if you're ever having mystery pains...that might be a place to look!

My health is still hit/miss, but steadily improving overall.  I haven't felt better in years!  I will chalk it all up to "e-biking", my doctor recommended and I'm not kidding...it  SERIOUSLY improved my numbers all across the board within a month of daily riding.

I'll be moving to my new digs in the next week or two.  Once settled, I might post a little more often...I never plan on totally leaving Capitalstool as long as I'm still breathing.  I'd like to support Doc as best as I can.  So, this might be another year of erratic posting, but like 2022...I plan on it being just as profitable.   If not more so.   From my perspective...for me...this year is easier to read.  Oh we did alright last year especially after nailing the 3.29 high and the secondary decline coming off 8.16...but it got boring right at October 13th.

I believe this is going to be the year of bottoms...and I'm ramping up my larger trading accounts to start studying longs.  No...not for a secular style bull market...just a large/long bounce that plays into my favorite time frame....which is if you recall 18 months.

Until then, net short.  Although...you know my feelings toward the metals.  I won't short these, or help others to do so.

I'm back to watching and waiting and I'm going to be dipping in from time to time until 3250 is touched.  Patience is again the order of the day.  It will be hit...

I'm personally just waiting for the announcement that brings this market sideways...I hope it's a doozy.  Although, considering the world environment at this moment...I will mention I hope it isn't nuclear related.



I'm actually dying to put the teacher hat on for awhile...

I haven't drawn up a single chart since October, I feel the need to practice a little....you might see one or three charts pop up here sooner or later.  All with our current situation in mind, plus a 2008 pattern update.  It's gotten...interesting.

Have you been watching the dates of reversals?  Lot's of 13's to be watching.  There's something there...maybe I'll discuss that a little.



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Viewing my 2008 Pattern Chart, yesterdays slight decline and the action so far this morning coincide with coming off the right peak on 9/02/08 into the Lehman event.  The pattern for the last six months has been running just under a 2:1 ratio(in time).

February should be interesting.  That is my call.  Perhaps the Fed can give us a gift of some sort.

I like it when a trade starts out clanking coins...let's hope it continues. 

I now have a few expensive toys to pay for...which means I plan on extreme accuracy this year.  If I have to pay for something with my own money....well,  it'll be a first.  I'm keeping my attitude positive so...so I won't even go there.



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