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Tiny Little Top 1/12/23

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There's a tiny little top pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures at 5:20 AM New York Time.  But it hasn't broken down yet, and cycle projections still point higher. 

What to believe. What to believe.

Well, if the ES breaks 3963 here it would have a measured move objective of 3953. 


It's a start. 


Hourly cycle oscillators look toppy, and momentum formed a negative divergence in the first two peaks of the pattern last night. On the other hand, there's still a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3990, and a 5 day cycle projection that's unclear but seems to point to at least 4010. And perhaps higher. 

To take that off the table, we would need to see the ES trading below 3950 at some point this morning. If they rally instead, there's trend resistance at 3975. Take that out, and I think that 4010 would be a done deal. 

Bonds have rallied over the past couple of weeks. This is a critical juncture, as is obvious on the daily chart of the 10 year Treasury yield. If they drop below 3.45, the target would be 3.25. If they hold here, up, up and away. 

A closer look at that tomorrow in my next Liquidity Trader update. Don't miss it! Subscribe today


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Historically, if the S&P500 scored a decline in the previous year and then the we had Christmas rally and the first 5 days of the new year were in positive territory, the entire following year marked a strong bull rally.

Counting from 1950 to date, there have been nine such instances. The average annual return has been 27.1% and the median 28.9%. as this pattern is also being repeated this year, you have to buy stocks on Wall Street.


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1 minute ago, SiP said:

Core CPI 5,7% keep kicking. sticky wages and labour market. Thats the clue in the long term - not energy, food auto sales.

Energy is everything. Nothing happens economically without energy.  Useless information for speculating on any term shorter than years.

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6 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Energy is everything. Nothing happens economically without energy.  Useless information for speculating on any term shorter than years.

There is no problem with energy. There is no energy crunch in EU or US. WTI is about 70 which is great, same for european brent. Natural gas is going down. All around the world nuclear power was given second life.

What a great time to live.

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