DrStool Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 There's a tiny little top pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures at 5:20 AM New York Time. But it hasn't broken down yet, and cycle projections still point higher. What to believe. What to believe. Well, if the ES breaks 3963 here it would have a measured move objective of 3953. Hey. It's a start. Hourly cycle oscillators look toppy, and momentum formed a negative divergence in the first two peaks of the pattern last night. On the other hand, there's still a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3990, and a 5 day cycle projection that's unclear but seems to point to at least 4010. And perhaps higher. To take that off the table, we would need to see the ES trading below 3950 at some point this morning. If they rally instead, there's trend resistance at 3975. Take that out, and I think that 4010 would be a done deal. Bonds have rallied over the past couple of weeks. This is a critical juncture, as is obvious on the daily chart of the 10 year Treasury yield. If they drop below 3.45, the target would be 3.25. If they hold here, up, up and away. A closer look at that tomorrow in my next Liquidity Trader update. Don't miss it! Subscribe today. For moron the markets, see: Gold in Them Thar Hills, January 11, 2023 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Low Conviction January 9, 2023 You Think That Was The Bottom? Think Again January 8, 2023 Withholding Taxes Are Soaring January 6, 2023 Gold Has Begun a Cyclical Bull Market January 4, 2023 Here’s Where Short Term Signals Either Confirm Bullish Or Else January 2, 2023 Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight December 23, 2022 May Gold Be Merciful Unto Us, Amen December 19, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
SiP Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 Historically, if the S&P500 scored a decline in the previous year and then the we had Christmas rally and the first 5 days of the new year were in positive territory, the entire following year marked a strong bull rally. Counting from 1950 to date, there have been nine such instances. The average annual return has been 27.1% and the median 28.9%. as this pattern is also being repeated this year, you have to buy stocks on Wall Street.
Jorma Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 Jeff Beck has died. Just an ordinary bloke, who was a musical genius. If we ever have cause to roll out Going Down here again it would be best to use his version and retire Freddy King's.
SiP Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 Core CPI 5,7% keep kicking. sticky wages and labour market. Thats the clue in the long term - not energy, food auto sales.
Jorma Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, SiP said: Core CPI 5,7% keep kicking. sticky wages and labour market. Thats the clue in the long term - not energy, food auto sales. Energy is everything. Nothing happens economically without energy. Useless information for speculating on any term shorter than years.
SiP Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 We enter Goldilocks period. Dollar been sold, so EM, PM inc. gold getting bid. Bonds been bought.
SiP Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Jorma said: Energy is everything. Nothing happens economically without energy. Useless information for speculating on any term shorter than years. There is no problem with energy. There is no energy crunch in EU or US. WTI is about 70 which is great, same for european brent. Natural gas is going down. All around the world nuclear power was given second life. What a great time to live.
Jimi Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 I guess CPI was bullish… just not bullish enough?
fxfox Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 3995 was a good level to short. But it is too obvious, OTOH obvious shorts worked in 2022, which in itself is quite weird.
MisFit Kid Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 or jam job, rain or shine........ BTFD xx80 in minutes >: they could/can say or print anything now.........
WTF Posted January 12, 2023 Report Posted January 12, 2023 They will close the gap... I will be going short.
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