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Countdown to Last Tax Sale 12/28/22

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Our friend WTF, with his program of buying the beaten down p,o.s. TSLA got me to thinking. Which is rare because I am set in my ways. But I got to thinking about how tax loss selling might be impacting this market. Sure enough, if you look around, the weakest stocks this year are the weakest right now. 

Of course that ends this week. I don't think I'll carry my short sales into the New Year, because so many idiots will be buying this crap back after they've waited the obligatory 30 days. CPAs typically tell their rich clients to start their tax selling in November, and voila, we've seen 3 destink selling waves since Tanks Giving.  One of them ended on November 30. We've had a couple of mini waves in the past week, and it will be interesting to see how today through Friday plays out. 

But I have to wonder if we won't see a mirror image of 3 waves of buying starting on January 2.  The poo that got dumped in late November might be the first to float back to the surface in the first week of January. Now there's an idea! A delayed buy the dip. Ewwwwww..... Whatever stocks were weakest at the end of November, buy at the close on December 31, and wait for them to magically float up on Jan 2-5.  Buy POS MOC, December 31.  

As for the current intraday technical pattern we got triangles and lines, boy do we. This is going in one direction and one direction only. 


This market just loves 3835-40, which I guess has something to do with Friday's year end quadruple witching, or so the egg spurts tell us. In the meantime, various triangle lines are closing in on the black hole singularity or a series of them. There's a mini singularity at 3834 at 11 AM New York time today. Then there's a bigger one at 3854 at the NY open tomorrow.  

However, if the market is below 3834 in this morning's first hour of regular trading, then we can look for some downside. First target 3800 ish, and if that goes, then the 3770s. 

Anyone trying to trade this week (ahem ahem, sorry something caught in my throat) deserves whatever fate befalls them in their descent into year end tax loss selling, options expiration hell. 


For moron the markets, see:

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One of the most important things is to have patience. Don‘t try to catch falling knives.

If you are not a professional money manager you don‘t have to be invested. Cash IS a position.

Wait till the liquidity situation gets brighter. When will that be? Who knows, maybe in 2023, maybe not. But if you follow Doc closely you will notice when the turning point comes. THEN you go long, not before.

In the meantime your duty is to set up a list of high beta stocks and solid stocks which get slaughtered only because of overall liquidity tightness not because they are crap. Always have that list handy and track it closely. And wait. Just wait. Once the signal comes to go long you act like a sniper, your pulse is very low, you just execute, cause you are prepared.

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42 minutes ago, WTF said:

The TSLA trade was not taken without a plan, for both when purchases and sales will be made.  If I am wrong, I will take the loss... but the trade isn't over yet.


6 month cycle projection is 100-110. Conventional measured move target is 35. Obvious sport level at 95. Unfilled gap at 82-84. 

As long as Musk is running the show, my expectation would be zero. Bankruptcy. 

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