DrStool Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Our friend WTF, with his program of buying the beaten down p,o.s. TSLA got me to thinking. Which is rare because I am set in my ways. But I got to thinking about how tax loss selling might be impacting this market. Sure enough, if you look around, the weakest stocks this year are the weakest right now. Of course that ends this week. I don't think I'll carry my short sales into the New Year, because so many idiots will be buying this crap back after they've waited the obligatory 30 days. CPAs typically tell their rich clients to start their tax selling in November, and voila, we've seen 3 destink selling waves since Tanks Giving. One of them ended on November 30. We've had a couple of mini waves in the past week, and it will be interesting to see how today through Friday plays out. But I have to wonder if we won't see a mirror image of 3 waves of buying starting on January 2. The poo that got dumped in late November might be the first to float back to the surface in the first week of January. Now there's an idea! A delayed buy the dip. Ewwwwww..... Whatever stocks were weakest at the end of November, buy at the close on December 31, and wait for them to magically float up on Jan 2-5. Buy POS MOC, December 31. As for the current intraday technical pattern we got triangles and lines, boy do we. This is going in one direction and one direction only. Flat. This market just loves 3835-40, which I guess has something to do with Friday's year end quadruple witching, or so the egg spurts tell us. In the meantime, various triangle lines are closing in on the black hole singularity or a series of them. There's a mini singularity at 3834 at 11 AM New York time today. Then there's a bigger one at 3854 at the NY open tomorrow. However, if the market is below 3834 in this morning's first hour of regular trading, then we can look for some downside. First target 3800 ish, and if that goes, then the 3770s. Anyone trying to trade this week (ahem ahem, sorry something caught in my throat) deserves whatever fate befalls them in their descent into year end tax loss selling, options expiration hell. For moron the markets, see: Swing Trade Screen Picks – Overloaded with Broad Market Shorts and Oil and Gas Longs December 26, 2022 Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight December 23, 2022 The Trend Was the Bears’ Friend December 19, 2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Stops Killed but Many More Added December 19, 2022 May Gold Be Merciful Unto Us, Amen December 19, 2022 Fed Steadfast But Treasury Throws a Bullish Curve December 14, 2022 Federal Tax Revenues Are Slowing December 6, 2022 Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 One of the most important things is to have patience. Don‘t try to catch falling knives. If you are not a professional money manager you don‘t have to be invested. Cash IS a position. Wait till the liquidity situation gets brighter. When will that be? Who knows, maybe in 2023, maybe not. But if you follow Doc closely you will notice when the turning point comes. THEN you go long, not before. In the meantime your duty is to set up a list of high beta stocks and solid stocks which get slaughtered only because of overall liquidity tightness not because they are crap. Always have that list handy and track it closely. And wait. Just wait. Once the signal comes to go long you act like a sniper, your pulse is very low, you just execute, cause you are prepared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Apple lost the June low, oh oh… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Uh oh! They missed the only way out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, DrStool said: Uh oh! They missed the only way out. "Just get off at the next exit & circle back." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Is Cathie Wood still alive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, fxfox said: Is Cathie Wood still alive? 🤣🤣🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 There are no triple bottoms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 The asian guy with the fat glasses said 3 weeks ago on CNBC that we will be at 4500 by year end… Guess he got sacked and hss a new profession now: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, DrStool said: There are no triple bottoms. "I will not post a photo.... I will not post a photo.... I will not post a photo...." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jimi said: "I will not post a photo.... I will not post a photo.... I will not post a photo...." She‘s a MILF in disguise, ok? 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BovineBagholder Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 Sometimes you just can't escape KARMA😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 minute ago, BovineBagholder said: Sometimes you just can't escape KARMA😂 Read someone asking rhetorically on the bird app when margin calls start to kick in on this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted December 28, 2022 Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 The TSLA trade was not taken without a plan, for both when purchases and sales will be made. If I am wrong, I will take the loss... but the trade isn't over yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2022 42 minutes ago, WTF said: The TSLA trade was not taken without a plan, for both when purchases and sales will be made. If I am wrong, I will take the loss... but the trade isn't over yet. 6 month cycle projection is 100-110. Conventional measured move target is 35. Obvious sport level at 95. Unfilled gap at 82-84. As long as Musk is running the show, my expectation would be zero. Bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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