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Yet Another Stick Save- 12/21/22

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12 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Market has now been rangebound for 2 months. Top and bottom of the range have moved around. Is this tough to trade or is it just my magination. 

Markets are always tough to trade. You don‘t see the emotion when you look at the charts in hindsight. That‘s why I said the other day: „You only FEEL the market, when you are IN the market“.

For the vast vast majority of people my advise would be: Buy and hold the S&P 500 and get a life. See, John Bogle was no idiot and Buffet isn‘t one either.

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6 minutes ago, DrStool said:

TIme stamp that. 

If people would really run a trade book, write down their feelings regarding their current open trades on a daily basis, track their p&l correctly, track their true time weighted rate of return correctly they would after 10 years realize 2 things:

1. their feelings regarding a trade were 50/50, could have tossed a coin instead

2. They did not beat the S&P 500 Total Return

that counts for 95% of folks. Ok, make that 98%.

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22 minutes ago, potatohead said:

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What does "priced in" mean. I don't understand that term.  I see it all the time, but I have no idea what it refers to. Futures contracts for those dates? 

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3 minutes ago, DrStool said:

What does "priced in" mean. I don't understand that term.  I see it all the time, but I have no idea what it refers to. Futures contracts for those dates? 

Yes Futures Contracts. But I think the rationale to say that those Futures contracts reflect the „right price“ is weird. See, it would be like if obe would say regarding an FX Swap that the far leg is „the right price“. It is not, it is just the Future price, whereas the near leg is the spot price.

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23 minutes ago, fxfox said:

If people would really run a trade book, write down their feelings regarding their current open trades on a daily basis, track their p&l correctly, track their true time weighted rate of return correctly they would after 10 years realize 2 things:

1. their feelings regarding a trade were 50/50, could have tossed a coin instead

2. They did not beat the S&P 500 Total Return

that counts for 95% of folks. Ok, make that 98%.

According to CFD bucket shop stats, 30% of traders make money.  

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