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Lock in Your Losses, Let Your Profits Shrink 12/14/22


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J. Powell needs to learn to think before he speaks and just keep the answers short and stop running his mouth or is he intentionally trying to support the markets?

  • Hints at fed's target inflation rate of 2% could possibly be raised.  "Longer term project" - if you are looking to tighten credit conditions just say no and then shut the fuck up.
  • Asked if the Fed would consider rate cuts in 2023, Powell said, would consider cuts if they were confident the inflation rate was "moving down to 2% in a sustained way ".  Moving down???  WTF, after spending a year telling us the Fed will "stay the course" and "higher for longer" until the target was met, the markets hear it's all bullshit.
  • "Getting close to sufficiently restrictive levels", well I guess that is it, their work is done... let the party begin.

The market's reaction looks like 1 more 25bps higher and then cuts coming starting in July 2023.

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JUST THE SAME OLD ACT

Jay just doing his synthetic QE mime show........

To go along with the not much real QT show.

It's the lack of printing that has deflated the asset markets.

The QT has been small and rather insignifcant....

Until they actually go back to real QE I can't see a bull market developing.

Not with all the defecits and crowding out effects.

The GFA's will continue to deflate.

The higher bond prices have casued a lot of damage in the financial system.

We just can't see it....yet.

 

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