DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 At this writing, at 6:30 AM NY TIme, the ES, S&P 24 hour fugutures are down 16 at 4056. They'd need to be below . It's not enough to break the uptrend. They would need to be below 4042 at the New York open to do that. And to create a reversal pattern on even just an intraday basis they would need to break 4003 at some point in the next day or two. On the other hand, if they hold above 4045 and then break 4061, then the uptrend would be reconfirmed, and we start looking for 4080, 4090, and 4100 again. The rally in the bond market is a shocker, given the strong jobs "data" on Friday. The punters are punch drunk with RRP cash. They've withdrawn $225 billion since the end of October. And some of them are using it to buy shit. They still have 2 trillion in that slush fund, so you can imagine what I'm thinking, now that they've had a rebirth of ani-mule spirits. Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund Even BTC appears to have put in an intermediate bottom that could take it back to 19k or 20k, before resuming its trip to its ultimate target of 5000 below zero. For moron the markets, see: Bears Last Custard Stand December 4, 2022 Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts) November 28, 2022 Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear November 28, 2022 Gold and Miners, Pullback Looks OK November 23, 2022 Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 pday cycle projection 3985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 I don't like that slush fund. There's so much dough in it. They can use it at will at any time they want. Until it's empty of ocurse. btw, not much talk about Blackstone not letting folks draw their money out of that REIT funds... Also: Cantor Fitz guy was mocked by CNBC just for being bearish right here right now (after they closed short and went long at 3600). So we are in the "laugh at the bears"-phase again... Further: Record 2022 low for Fear & Greed index... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 If they, whoever they are, can peg 30 day Tbills at 4% for the next few months,,,,, Well then the "market sets interest rates" law is going to need some asterisks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mkucstars Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 They can use it. Question is do they want to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: 5 pday cycle projection 3985. now looking 4000ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 58 minutes ago, fxfox said: I don't like that slush fund. There's so much dough in it. They can use it at will at any time they want. Until it's empty of ocurse. The vast majority of it is MMF money, earmarked only for T-bills. If the Fed wants to force market rates down, it can, by limiting the size of the overnight RRP auctions. That would force that cash back into T-bills. As that chart I posted the other day showed, only about 10% of the RRPs are non MMF money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 About the expat thing. I've had legal residency in four countries over the past 2 years. I've spent significant amounts of time in 2 North American and a dozen European countries. I have visited or spent time in, or lived in approximately 150 different cities in Europe. I don't speak any of the languages. Many Europeans speak English, but not in Southern Europe. But in Spain, Italy, and most of France, most people don't. It is NOT a problem. I have developed many friendships using only Microsoft Translator and Google Translate. France was by far, my first choice of country. The French Riviera was my first choice of region for many reasons. For Americans interested in a great way of life, this place is simply the best. There are other places that I absolutely love also, including much of Croatia, parts of Spain and Portugal. But the South of France is the best. Hands down. And considering the fact that health care is included in your taxes, it's cheaper than the US for working people. It is, however, not as cheap as the other Mediterranean rim countries. But Americans living on the East or West coasts would find it dirt cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 The total tax wedge in France, including central and sub central government taxes will cost about 10% more of your income than in Spain for 2 person, childless households earning 167% of the average wage or more. Compared to the US, given that health care costs are paid privately in the US, if this is added to the tax burden, then the US tax + health insurance would be around the same as the cost in France. However, if you are on Medicare, then you would be ahead of the game in the US. These are only income taxes. They DO NOT INCLUDE real estate taxes. In the US, RE taxes are roughly 4 times to 10 times higher than in France. For example, the RE tax on a 500 K house in NJ, might be $10,000. In France it would be around $2000. Similar differential on housing insurance and association fees if you are in a condo or Ho Moaners Ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdButter Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 So is the 10% of RRP enough to offset(or more) the Fed's QT program and run stocks/bonds up? Also, I recently(within a week) saw somewhere a graph of ' liquidity' showing a modest rise in Nov, after several months of cumulative decline? Anything to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 There's a push pull with liquidity. Watch the technicals here. This is where the rubber meets the road. Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 day cycle projection drops to 3975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Well RE taxes are way lower than in US because its a different tax system. In US you dont have VAT, which in short you could compare to sales tax in US. VAT is different for different product categories (lower for food like 8% a higher like even 23%/ in Poland for cars). In US you could buy product online without any sales tax. in europe its impossible. You will pay as a consumer 23% in Poland for all electronics, cars etc On the other hand, my RE tax for three bedroom flat is .... 150 usd yearly. you got that right. 150 usd yearly. My point is - the tax systems are different and you can btw game them by establishing company, even in your home country and getting rid of vat if you buy a product for a company instead of consumer. Doc why south of France is better than lets day Barcelona (Spain), Lagos (south of portugal) or rather Lisboa (portugal capital)? I think it depends what you are looking for. E.g. i really like Bari and south of inland Italy. Smaller cities, no business. It could be good for remote work. Nice is pretty big city btw but i guess you like bigger cities than village? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Why leave the US at all? It's a great country. There are not many better ones on earth. Live for 10 years a daily life in Europe with all ups and downs and than we talk again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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