DrStool Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 From what I'm reading in the Wall Street propaganda sheets, the current market bet is not on a Fed pivot, but a Fed pause. Or something. But what difference does it make. Money talks and BS walks. And all of the speculation on a P, whether pivot or pause, is just that, speculation. Markets can start on speculation, but they don't finish. The big moves come when the money comes, not before. I can't think of an instance where any market successfully front ran a Fed policy reversal that actually moved money, instead of "guidance." Guidance, schmidance. That doesn't mean that short squeezes don't exact pain from bears who are positioned that way. There's a reason their called "squeezes" and not "hugs." Yesterday, my line in the sand for the ES, S&P 500 24 hour fuguetures was 3725. I said they gotta break that in the early going in regular New York trading to get anything going on the downside. They took it to 3726 and no more. That was a sign that the squeeze was still causing brown pants syndrome short covering. Today's magic number is 3782 in the opening hour. If they don't break that, I'll still be dribbling. You know, I remember, back in '77 when I was a broker at Advest in Philly, one of the old guys, a broker in his 80s who had been through the crash, had a ton of bonds in his and his customers' portfolios. Unfortunately the poor old bastard was incontinent, so he always wore a brown suit to work. It didn't matter. We still knew. On particularly bad days in the bond market, he'd walk down the aisle between the cubicles dribbling shit on the carpet all the way. True story. This market reminds me of that. Both ways. Those were the days my friends. Anyway, 3782 is just for starters. After that, bears need a weak bounce or two to form a nice top on the hourly to get a rollover into some real downside. Barring that, the path of least resistance will remain sideways. And if they clear 3816, up up and away to 3840 next. Swing Trade Screens – Operation Extrication October 24, 2022 Technical Signs Say Doubt This Rally October 23, 2022 Signs of an Intermediate Bottom in Gold October 22, 2022 Bears Beware, Treasury Buybacks Will Turn the Markets, Sooner Not Later October 21, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side October 17, 2022 On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly? October 17, 2022 We Now Know When and Where Gold Will Bottom October 14, 2022 We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections October 5, 2022 Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 THE PAUSE It didnt take the FED long to panic did it!!!!! Even the pause (no QT or QE) is still enough to continue to force the market down due to the crowding out effect. Short term bounce...sure....but.... But Nullity (the pause) is so much more politically defendable for the FED They can now say....who....me....Im not doing anything....don't blame me if the market is still going down...... And some good values are showing up...Addidas at 9 times FCF. Much cheaper than Nike. Of course pause not good for the dollar (relative to QT). QE would be even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 I'm going to post this one more time, then tuck it away in the archives... ^HUI 175.70 must hold...or, well. I'll just say this. In all markets..."when the next sign of strength arrives...a trader should respect the direction". If not...the hits will keep coming until the lesson is learned. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 And that, Little Johnny, is how Dr. Stepan N. Stool was conceived… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 Just an FYI... The Hang Seng Index has now crossed the 50% decline threshold from its February 17th(2.17) peak in 2021. It's still in mid-air... Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 Island reversal in TLT hourly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 This is a hell of a base breakout if this sticks. It would measure to 4100+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 EUR/USD approaches parity. Look at wicks monthly chart Sep and Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 Dollar getting beaten with an ugly stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 Overnight...from Europe. TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 25, 2022 Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 I can't find my calculator...can someone remind of what 3840 divided by 2 is? Thanks. To "explode out of here", all you have to do is overcome(AND hold)...3840. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 And T is for Toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 If pointing counts, this is headed for 3860 today, then we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 5 day cycle projection also 3860. Almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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