DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 It's shocking just how fast market interest rates are rising, as the Fed and its Wall Street lackeys promote the false idea that the Fed is raising rates. The Fed is not raising rates. The market is rising on its own, and the Fed is merely treading the rising tide. And it is drowning because of its own ballast. Even when it releases some and floats toward the surface, its head only rises to just below, not above, the surface. At the rate this is going, the market will be up 100 basis points at the next FOMC circus. If the Fed goes only 75, it will be further behind the curve. What exactly is the point of this charade? To support stock prices? It's clearly not helping the bond market. But in the short run, day to day, the stock market is often distorted by news noise, whether it be about British politics and their impact on British gilt prices, or Apple cutting production of its core products, or Netfux adding a few subscribers, or some other such irrelevant nonsense. But these things matter only in the day to day. Over the big picture, for the stock market as a whole, only liquidity matters. In the day to day chart of the 24 hour, hourly ES S&P futures, we're in another triangular wedge pattern, heading for an apex of 3795 in the wee hours of tomorrow morning. But the 5 day cycle projection is only 3770. The price is hovering just above the lower line of the pattern as of 6:30 AM New Yak Time. It would need to be below 3725 in the opening hour of regular NY trading to break the pattern. As I write this at 6:36 AM ET, it's at 3730. So there's a chance. Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side October 17, 2022 On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly? October 17, 2022 We Now Know When and Where Gold Will Bottom October 14, 2022 We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Plunging in on the Short Side October 11, 2022 Market Reaches Do or Die, Right Here October 10, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections October 5, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Beware! This Swing is Old October 3, 2022 Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now October 2, 2022 Gold Reason to Hope No Reason for Optimism September 30, 2022 Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 And....we're back to 3720-2. Again... I read your comments this morning Doc... Around here we have one saying that rules them all. "Money Talks...Bullshit Walks". At the end of the day...I'd have to agree. It ALL boils down to liquidity... Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Jimi - that was some psychedelic real estate you posted yesterday - Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 SENIOR US ENERGY ADVISER: THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY WILL ANNOUNCE THE RELEASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 15 MILLION BARRELS OF SPR - MSNBC INTERVIEW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 California Association of Realtors 〈™〉 famous for the following statements: "Prices never go down,"〈™〉 "California is special,"〈™〉 and "There's never been a better time to buy than now,"〈™〉 has capitulated and says that home prices in California will decline 8.8% in 2023: https://www.car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2022releases/2023housingforecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 That's a nice top on the hourly. Now break it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 I sold my house at the top again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 And I beat the final collapse of the insurance market in Florida as well. After this there will be no housing market there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, sandy beach said: California Association of Realtors 〈™〉 famous for the following statements: "Prices never go down,"〈™〉 "California is special,"〈™〉 and "There's never been a better time to buy than now,"〈™〉 has capitulated and says that home prices in California will decline 8.8% in 2023: https://www.car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2022releases/2023housingforecast "AN 8.8% DECLINE?!?!" Why, that might take us back to price levels not seen in this state since... since... since...! Q4-2021 Ill take the "over." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 3 hours ago, sandy beach said: Jimi - that was some psychedelic real estate you posted yesterday - Wow! Seriously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 Conventional measured move target 3620 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 48 minutes ago, DrStool said: Conventional measured move target 3620 Correction, 3730. But I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 19, 2022 Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 minute ago, DrStool said: Correction, 3730. But I'll take it. Can we compromise on 3630? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2022 That would be ok. Yes. I will see your 3630 and drop you 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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