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Why the Wild Ride 10/18/22

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3 hours ago, Jimi said:

Think about how utterly incoherent UK fiscal & monetary policy has been the past 6 weeks.

We're going to gather ourselves into a bullish lather globally, because...


... we should somehow believe that the freaking policy clowncar there has got it right now and will execute on this new plan?

Really? That's the story here?

It took me by surprise, I must say, when I saw this yesterday. Oh yeah, my nuts are in vice, and it isn't very nice. 

The ES 24 hour S&P futures have had a wee reversal in the wee hours around 5:30 AM New Yak time. They hit a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3750 overnight. The dominant intraday pattern cycles are too short and volatile for a clear 5 day cycle projection. The base breakout measures to 3800.  

They've pulled back to breakout line support at 3714. If that holds, we're still in meltup city. If that holds, we still have the uptrend channel line rising from 3695 to 3705 between 6 AM ET and 10 AM.  Unless and until that breaks, anyone heavily short, ahem, ahem, is still in trouble. 



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Good morning everyone...

I waited until Monday evening and took a look at my charts.  As far as I'm concerned...if we take out the high from Friday(and the futures are currently above the high), I'll consider that a rejection of 3600 and the fulfillment of "Scenario B".

For those who haven't read my posts...I'll be sticking with "Scenario B" as I've outlined in the "Poetry in Motion" chart from September 21st(and probably a few posts around that date as well).  In short...I a) will be watching 3900, and b) If the market is rejected at 3900, I will consider that the signal of an incoming crash in the stock market.  Since we've already had small ripples in the water from across the pond...perhaps that will be ground zero? 

Although...in our current economic/political environment...out of left field can't be ruled out. 

After all, everywhere I look...I see crumbling foundations.



Here is a copy of "Poetry in Motion" for your convenience...


Scenario B...


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23 minutes ago, fxfox said:

One earnings surprise after the other… Netflix beats.

It is the same earnings season like in July: We thought lot‘s of warnings would come, but didn‘t.

Well... as Doc has pointed out periodically, the Fed has remained behind the curve.

We'll see how guidance and eventually 4th quarter shapes up.

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