DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 On the day to day scale that we watch here, it's true! And if the ES 24 hour S&P futures are above 3630 by the time New Yak pre market trading opens at 8 AM ET, bears could be in some hot water for the next day or couple of days. On the other hand, if the ES is below 3606 bears get the ball back. And below 3580, they'd be driving. The hourly oscillators are dead neutral, so no help there, but it suggests that whichever way they break, it will be a sizable move. Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side October 17, 2022 On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly? October 17, 2022 We Now Know When and Where Gold Will Bottom October 14, 2022 We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Plunging in on the Short Side October 11, 2022 Market Reaches Do or Die, Right Here October 10, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections October 5, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Beware! This Swing is Old October 3, 2022 Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now October 2, 2022 Gold Reason to Hope No Reason for Optimism September 30, 2022 Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 The Wall Street captured media still pretends to believe the Fed's show of controlling interest rates. It's just silly. I saw a tweet this morning that the market has "priced in" 75 basis points. What do they mean priced in? The price is the price. The rate is the price. It's the market. It's been obvious through this entire cycle that the Fed just follows the market. It's always late, and it never catches up. The money markets are tight and constantly getting tighter. Interest rates, such as that on the 13 week T-bill, which is a more or less real market, are the meter of market tightness. The Fed's changes in the Fed Funds target are not a real rate. There's no real Fed Funds market. Reserves remain plentiful, as evidenced by the $2.3 trillion that various money holders have deposited in the Fed's RRPs. Only troubled banks borrow in the rigged Fed Funds market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side October 17, 2022 On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly? October 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Breakout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 I think the boys from Brazil are all excited, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Lee, saw your post yesterday ETFs do not see any cash inflow. The Authorized Participants simply provide the underlying securities to the ETF in exchange for shares they create. Normally the APs are creating shares when there is arbitrage between underlying and ETF share price. I explain ETFs and how they operate in the latest Spaces with Tom at Palisade Radio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wie0CmhuaWY&t=1s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 1 minute ago, potatohead said: Lee, saw your post yesterday ETFs do not see any cash inflow. The Authorized Participants simply provide the underlying securities to the ETF in exchange for shares they create. Normally the APs are creating shares when there is arbitrage between underlying and ETF share price. I explain ETFs and how they operate in the latest Spaces with Tom at Palisade Radio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wie0CmhuaWY&t=1s Does the falling price of the securities that must be exchanged impact the number of shares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Well, if this doesn't turn around, my chart picks will be a bag of shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Is the Fed about to pivot again? ROTFLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, DrStool said: Does the falling price of the securities that must be exchanged impact the number of shares? That is reflected in the share price as it relates to the NAV of the fund. creation and redemption of shares is simply a profit center of the APs. There has not been much net redemption of shares since the shares outstanding has continually been rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Prediction is hard especially about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 3770. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 3770. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 You're not going to believe this, but the 2-3 day cycle projection is 3770. I don't believe it. Do you believe it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 I'm seriously losing my mind. Today I have the heaviest load of chart picks on the short side that I have ever had, and the farking market is up a hunnert farking points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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