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We Have an Uptrend 9/17/22

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On the day to day scale that we watch here, it's true! And if the ES 24 hour S&P futures are above 3630 by the time New Yak pre market trading opens at 8 AM ET, bears could be in some hot water for the next day or couple of days.  On the other hand, if the ES is below 3606 bears get the ball back. And below 3580, they'd be driving. 

The hourly oscillators are dead neutral, so no help there, but it suggests that whichever way they break, it will be a sizable move. 

z86f-

 

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The Wall Street captured media still pretends to believe the Fed's show of controlling interest rates. It's just silly. 

I saw a tweet this morning that the market has "priced in" 75 basis points. What do they mean priced in? The price is the price. The rate is the price. It's the market. It's been obvious through this entire cycle that the Fed just follows the market. It's always late, and it never catches up. 

The money markets are tight and constantly getting tighter. Interest rates, such as that on the 13 week T-bill, which is a more or less real market, are the meter of market tightness. The Fed's changes in the Fed Funds target are not a real rate. There's no real Fed Funds market. Reserves remain plentiful, as evidenced by the $2.3 trillion that various money holders have deposited in the Fed's RRPs.  Only troubled banks borrow in the rigged Fed Funds market. 

z86k8 

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Lee,

saw your post yesterday

ETFs do not see any cash inflow. The Authorized Participants simply provide the underlying securities to the ETF in exchange for shares they create. Normally the APs are creating shares when there is arbitrage between underlying and ETF share price. I explain ETFs and how they operate in the latest Spaces with Tom at Palisade Radio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wie0CmhuaWY&t=1s

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1 minute ago, potatohead said:

Lee,

saw your post yesterday

ETFs do not see any cash inflow. The Authorized Participants simply provide the underlying securities to the ETF in exchange for shares they create. Normally the APs are creating shares when there is arbitrage between underlying and ETF share price. I explain ETFs and how they operate in the latest Spaces with Tom at Palisade Radio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wie0CmhuaWY&t=1s

Does the falling price of the securities that must be exchanged impact the number of shares? 

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12 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Does the falling price of the securities that must be exchanged impact the number of shares? 

That is reflected in the share price as it relates to the NAV of the fund. creation and redemption of shares is simply a profit center of the APs. There has not been much net redemption of shares since the shares outstanding has continually been rising.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F60f8ff63-d9e5-42e9-b8b9-75510981fcc2_2130x1771.png?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

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I'm seriously losing my mind. Today I have the heaviest load of chart picks on the short side that I have ever had, and the farking market is up a hunnert farking points. 

 

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