potatohead Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 FedNow... Curious on Anyone's take regarding the new Fednow program. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fednow-payment-system-launch-2023-194814075.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 5 hours ago, potatohead said: FedNow... Curious on Anyone's take regarding the new Fednow program. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fednow-payment-system-launch-2023-194814075.html Well, US citizens currently lives in 80ties, using old school payment methods like checks. In the same time countries like Brasil, Poland are using the most advanced digital payment methods. You just click and within miliseconds somebody get money, whether its b2c or b2b. Instant payment. You could send this money on mobile number instead of bank account, you could use one time token (called OTP) with 8 random digits and fill them in, instead of long credit card number. Its works in Brasil, Poland and in several other countries. So I guess US is just catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Jimi said: The only thing wrong with this idea is that it isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Pix system in Brazil https://business.ebanx.com/en/resources/payments-explained/pix-instant-payment-system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 THE AGE OF THE FALSE CORRELATION 11 hours ago, Jimi said: Expand Yes we live in the age of garbage correlations. Where false correlations thrive and real causations are ignored. Cant wait for someone to make the startling discovery that the number of gooney chicks hatched on some obscure coral attol in the mid pacific exactly correlates to the yearly change in the S&P. They will then launch the Goonydex and make a fortune licensing it to fund managers who will launch a 1000 ETF's based on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Lee, thought you may find the following interesting. Your warnings on the bond market have been spot on. Interestingly the shares of TLT have continue grow throughout this rate rising cycle. The public or institutions are still betting that bond yields have peaked and bond prices have bottomed. The losses have been massive from a fixed income perspective. This would tell me that the bond market has not seen any peak copulation, sorry capitulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 1 hour ago, potatohead said: Lee, thought you may find the following interesting. Your warnings on the bond market have been spot on. Interestingly the shares of TLT have continue grow throughout this rate rising cycle. The public or institutions are still betting that bond yields have peaked and bond prices have bottomed. The losses have been massive from a fixed income perspective. This would tell me that the bond market has not seen any peak copulation, sorry capitulation. That was probably Doc‘s call of the decade. Only very very few said at TLT 120 that we will go sub 100. Doc did. Most accumulate aggressively ever since 120 or even above. The bond crash - and it IS a crash, NOT just a sell off - is an absolute catastrophe for many many money managers. Also many trading strategies work that way that they use TLT or other Bond Funds as their „out of market“ asset at times of stress. That worked well for DECADES, not only since 2009. So in 2022 we are real time witnesses of a watershed moment in financial history. They did fight the FED. And lost it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 I've got Treasury securities penciled in a zero. No charts involved. After I am gone hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 BONDS AS A SAFE HAVEN It does not work in an inflationary environment. It does not work with a 40% M2 print. It does not work in the high debt high Inflation quadrant or "Frame". Its the frame that drives the return (and the risk). As soon as the FED started printing in March 2020 every bond fund manager should have liquidated their bond funds.... Was'nt going to happen of course... The agency problem is central..... They couldnt give up their fees.... Fees are "Primary". Destruction of their investers wealth is "Secondary". Now if there were a mechanism to reward fund managers for avoiding losses, i.e. give them say 10-20 % of losses avoided....then they would have sold every bond they managed long ago. Perhaps fund managers should be rewarded based only on outperformance against a bond index rather than a flat fee of AUM. The bond markets are going Japanese... Only CB's will own bonds..and will have to constantly buy them to prop the bond markets up......supress interest rates. This will only end when Governments get fiscal responsibility.... Chances of this currently are very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 3 hours ago, potatohead said: Lee, thought you may find the following interesting. Your warnings on the bond market have been spot on. Interestingly the shares of TLT have continue grow throughout this rate rising cycle. The public or institutions are still betting that bond yields have peaked and bond prices have bottomed. The losses have been massive from a fixed income perspective. This would tell me that the bond market has not seen any peak copulation, sorry capitulation. I'm no expert on bond ETFs and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. So I aks this question. In order to maintain a 20 year horizon the fund must structure in such a way older bonds roll off and newer lower priced bonds are added. So there are more bonds in the portfolio. As they redeem older bonds, and buy cheaper bonds wouldn't they need to issue more shares to equate with the price of a 20 year Treasury bond in the market? I don't know. Just aksing. If investors were buying the fund, that would show up as cash inflows. Is that reported anywhere. As stock prices fall and bond yields rise, it would not surprise me to see increased inflows. But from my perspective such data is of little value. Because in order to buy the bond fund shares, investors must sell assets, whether fixed income funds, stocks, their house etc. The downtrend in bond prices will not end until the Fed again starts buying the bulk of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 interesting read «We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale» Market strategist and historian Russell Napier warns of a 15- to 20-year phase of structurally elevated inflation and financial repression. He shares his views on how investors should prepare for this new world. https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 2 hours ago, SiP said: interesting read «We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale» Market strategist and historian Russell Napier warns of a 15- to 20-year phase of structurally elevated inflation and financial repression. He shares his views on how investors should prepare for this new world. https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606 This misses the root cause. Rising energy prices. It's an energy economy not a money one. (link below) Like Lee's focus is on the mechanisms of the monetary system The Energy Cost of Energy focuses on the mechanisms of wealth itself. Wealth derives from energy and so far there isn't anymore, cheap. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/06/19/175-the-surplus-energy-economy/ We know instinctively why more money will not make us rich. Energy is why. The mechanism. Never mind the US. I genuinely fear for billions of people all over the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Back to 3600 +/-10 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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