DrStool Posted October 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, potatohead said: Are most Treasuries on banks balance sheet in the form of held-to-maturity or held-for-trading/ available-for-sale. I was under the impression that the majority of treasuries are held-to-maturity from an accounting basis and not marked to market. Where as the primary dealers have to mark to market their losses. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 I have touched on the subject of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets in a several reports over the past 6 months. They can't remain unrealized indefinitely as overleveraged banks get collateral calls. Depositors pulling deposits to buy Treasuries is a form of collateral call. QT is a constant margin call on bank portfolios. They can't sell their conventional loan portfolios. They can't sell the esoteric stuff. What can they sell? Treasuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 7 hours ago, DrStool said: The Federal Plunge Protection Team (PPT) swung into action early yesterday, triggering a marketwide short squeeze with spectacular results. But these interventions can only last so long. The market must then sink or swim on its own. 5 day cycle projections on the ES 24 hour futures chart of the S&P 500 says that this one will swim to a target of 3725, and then start sinking again. It topped out at 3721. I was off by 4 points. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 That's what I get for eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: It topped out at 3721. I was off by 4 points. Sorry. you are the man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob osso Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 I don't know Doc, the feed over on the right says the high was 3723.6. I was about to ask if you weigh the same as a duck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob osso Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 I don't know...looks like 3725 to me. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Bostic. Clarida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 Kaplan Rosengren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 The S&P500 futures (ES) are going to close exactly at 3600 again for a third time, aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, sandy beach said: The S&P500 futures (ES) are going to close exactly at 3600 again for a third time, aren't they? Close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 The fact that they smashed the S&P while holding Dow to a glide patch means look out below on Monday. Bonne nuit et bonne chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Edited for content. I'm going to expand on this topic... TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 21 hours ago, DrStool said: I have touched on the subject of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets in a several reports over the past 6 months. They can't remain unrealized indefinitely as overleveraged banks get collateral calls. Depositors pulling deposits to buy Treasuries is a form of collateral call. QT is a constant margin call on bank portfolios. They can't sell their conventional loan portfolios. They can't sell the esoteric stuff. What can they sell? Treasuries. Should we be buying them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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