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When the Bear Market Will End

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3 minutes ago, SiP said:

Yeah, Im sayin we should rally. If not, I kid you not, you should be scared.

Just to let you know, some insights from real economy. My bro is a trucker for JB hunt. He said that never in his life has he seen so little merchandise / goods to carry before Black Friday and Christmas. It is v.  bad in Chicago. You cant sell house in Chicago. The market is frozen.

In Poland we just started to have mass layoffs. The biggest media company just announced them today. Media is the first sector to feel the heat and good canary in the coal mine.

 

cheers

Schenker, one of the largest logistics companies in Germany, said that from September on freight rates virtually collapsed and that even accelerated in October.

Real Estate seams to collapse too in Germany.

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I could be reading/interpreting your post incorrectly fxfox...so please pardon any misconceptions. 

The date you specify is in the middle of a formation...not towards the end and the pattern itself...is usually a 'continuation' pattern.  So...I'm having a hard time visualizing what you're saying...

From my own perspective...

I'll re-post the "Multiply 2008 By Three" chart.

If we view the chart below and translate this well known pattern forward(to the next chart).  I believe it becomes a clear picture.  And why would we do this?  The 2008 decline is nothing more than a series of repeating fractals. 

1720275758_Multiply2008ByThree-October32022.thumb.jpg.2c76dae2e83ae92dad7ab86a5344629d.jpg

 

So, if we look closely at the low on October 28, 2008?

It's in the middle of the pattern...if we do expand to the upside and fall to another low...the odds of that being an actual low...are very, well...low.  It's a continuation pattern.  So...you'd normally need to bounce and then continue on down until you found an actual tradable bottom.

662574429_October282008Illustration.jpg.2efa37315e71c7eab7fdbcb4dcb74631.jpg

Preliminary comment regarding today's market, uh...action.

Today we fulfilled the H&S requirement to 3500.   Then we rejected the decline through 3600 and headed north.  Most would call this a nice reversal and even as I sit here...I can't rule that out. 

Although...I've been around for a very long time and I've seen 1000's of strong reversals in my time and I can't help but think...this reversal felt artificial...or manufactured.  The emotion wasn't there and frankly...it's bothering me enough to be cautious.  I'll personally need confirmation and to be my usual honest and forthright self...this whole affair has a "creepy" feeling about it and I'm finding it hard to comment. 

My personal belief, which I don't feel the need to explain to anyone...is this. 

Today...had nefarious origins.

So...what next?  If we reject below 3600, then we're right back to "Poetry in Motion" where another trip north is in order.  Isn't this fun?  Essentially...it's the game plan we've had from the beginning.  Until it isn't...

What tees me off about this whole affair?  When we cracked hard at the CPI news release...I had just said to myself...I can finally toss 2008 into the archives!  I was quite happy about doing this because  I'm getting tired of rehashing the same old charts. 

400199908_PoetryinMotion-September212022.thumb.jpg.7675843c1c585d34fd79916c3a1dec52.jpg

Like I said earlier...today's candle(HE) in my view can only mean two things.  The pivot market between 3800 and 3400...or a low.

Speaking for myself.  I've been watching the 30 day cycle ending on the 16th of each month since the June low and I'm not in the camp where these cycles can come in early or late...they're always on time...or not there at all.  So...I'm going to watch Friday/Monday closely before I say anything further.  Although...If the day of interest comes on a Saturday...I usually watch Friday and if it comes in on a Sunday...Monday. 

So...that is why I was mentioned Monday's close.

I can yank charts out...and tuck them away just as fast...🙂.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

I've rarely been in the mood to type lately.  The medication they've got me on is keeping me nice and sluggish...but that will end soon.

While I am typing....I'd like to take yet another look at the Twin Peaks Reference Chart.  Why?  Because...you really can't view it enough.  Afterall, BTC was mentioned today was it not?  Well, its topping pattern(as I have shown) is a Twin Peaks(Right hand dominant) Formation. Usually in the Twin Peaks formation the left side of the formation is dominant...although, in BTC(and ETH) the right side is dominant.   So...let us take a little closer look at the peak.  Can you tell me the date of the high on the left peak in BTC?  That is the date I would personally use when measuring the decline to the bottom...not the right peak.   At the right peak...I would measure price...but not time.

Now...you've found the date?

Ok.  What day is the OPPOSITE day of the year from the peak in BTC?

This...is what you call an inversion...and...why I always mention to study inversions. 

I'll also mention...if you add/subtract four months from peaks/troughs...you may begin to notice another pattern as well.  There are more of these and I will mention them all sooner or later.

830349792_TwinPeaksFormation-April282022.thumb.jpg.d3beb93618d4e07c6560ee97489084e9.jpg

Now...that we've spent a little time viewing the Twin Peaks chart.   Maybe we should expand the chart?  Could this start to give us a few new ideas?  Can you start to see...possibilities?1436722674_AlmostTherebutNotQuite-October12022.thumb.jpg.2b0a66b4915cd4adda7d7c37a8b113f7.jpg

Why 25.60?  Subtracting 6.40 will get you started in the right direction.

More on this later.  Much more...

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11 hours ago, SiP said:

Yeah, Im sayin we should rally. If not, I kid you not, you should be scared.

Just to let you know, some insights from real economy. My bro is a trucker for JB hunt. He said that never in his life has he seen so little merchandise / goods to carry before Black Friday and Christmas. It is v.  bad in Chicago. You cant sell house in Chicago. The market is frozen.

In Poland we just started to have mass layoffs. The biggest media company just announced them today. Media is the first sector to feel the heat and good canary in the coal mine.

 

cheers

I miss this town. 

4KLv0u998qxkM4j4PvwCj0njohIO00hzGJa-o3w-

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