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It's a Consolidation, Not a Bottom 10/12/22

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The pattern currently developing on the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P fugutures looks like a bottom. But it snot. It's a consolidation. How do we know that? Because the 5 day cycle has been in an up phase for 2 1/2 days, which means it is now at its midpoint in time. This being a bear market within a bear market, it's overdue for its down phase, now, as of 5 AM New Yak time.
 
Something else may be afoot however, if in fact, a longer cycle of the sort that I track in the Technical Trader, is turning up. Then this up phase would extend. The key will be whether the ES ends the first hour of regular New York trading above 3635. If it does, then let us all turn our eyes toward the heavens to behold the power of the Golden Calf. 
 
At the moment the 2-3 and 5 day cycle projections point to around 3630-35. That says that a breakout on this mini leg is not in the cards. On the other hand, we'd need to see a print below 3560 to think about any extension to the downside over the next couple of days. 
 
z6sg0
 
Friend arriving from the US this morning. I'll be back witchoo late. I'll post a Liquidity Trader update tonight. 
 

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Look at the hourly cycle oscillators. They're almost perfectly neutral and flat. One way or the other, it's gonna be a big move. It's decision time. 5 day cycle is due to turn down. 

 

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