DrStool Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 The 5 day cycle up phase started in the pre market on Sunday night. The ES 24 hour S&P futures are approaching the top of that up phase. Wait, we're at a low! How can this be a top? Ask me that question in a couple days when the market is looking back here from lower levels to see it clearly. 3570 is the key. If that breaks, then the down phase will pick up steam. The hourly indicators as of 6:30 AM ET suggest that it may be starting now. If 3570 holds then they can extend the churning for a bit longer. To get anything at all going on the upside, they'd need to clear 3605. If they break 3570, the next stop would be 3533, then 3480. I wouldn't bet against it happening today. Market Reaches Do or Die, Right Here October 10, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections October 5, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Beware! This Swing is Old October 3, 2022 Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now October 2, 2022 Gold Reason to Hope No Reason for Optimism September 30, 2022 Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 THE SLINGSHOT MANEUVER As you are all aware the Fed is deperately trying to blast away from the debt default event horizon. Just one little problem. There is not enough fuel to do it. So what can it do..... Plan B....the pivot....the only real option left.... It can turn around and accelarate towards the debt..... Picking up inflationary speed by printing..... So reducing the debts "real debt mass" And slingshot around it.... As a spacecraft slingshots around a planet....... Picking up speed to reach escape velocity. This is the only way to escape the debt event horizon now...... Reduce the real debt mass. Reduce the debt event horizon. Reduce the gravitational force. Then escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 Jimbo... Slingshot maneuver? 1/2 your post sounds like it came out of a Farscape episode. You're not a fan are you? I have the complete series on DVD. I like to watch 'em while wearing my Browncoat. The market? Exercising a little patience...when we broke down instead of up, not much to do except wait. Odds are...I'll be long this time next week. TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 BofA "Last week yielded third largest inflow in stocks since 2008"BofA clients were net buyers of $6.1B in equities. Headline on Interactive Brokers per StreetInsider. I guess we haven't capitulated yet. We're just burning up the cash on the sidelines in bear market rallies leaving less and less cash on hand to buy the eventual bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 Bank of England is going to buy $5B a day in index-linked Gilt due to "dysfunctional market" and "self-reinforcing fire sale dynamics" due to pension funds raising cash to meet margin calls. Index-linked Gilt returns are pegged to inflation. Well I can see why they have a lot of Gilt there - too much Q/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 Cash trades do not affect the amount of "cash on the sidelines." The impact is zero. Cash trades are transactions, not repositories. They are the point at which money changes hands. Only leveraged trades impact the amount of money in the system. In that sense, only unused margin is cash on the sidelines. Margin purchases increase M. Margin calls decrease it. The only way that "cash on the sidelines" can diminish is through forced margin liquidation. That literally, in fact, destroys cash. Its existence ends at that point. The Fed is also reducing "cash on the sidelines" via QT. But always remember. Cash trading has zero impact on "cash on the sidelines." Zero, zilch, nada, none. When you buy a stock, the guy who sold it to you gets your cash in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 LAVROV: IF U.S. PROPOSES PUTIN-BIDEN MEETING, WE WILL CONSIDER IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 Market Reaches Do or Die, Right Here LEE ADLER TECHNICAL TRADER OCTOBER 10, 2022 0 COMMENTS And that’s for both parties to the conflict. Bears could be in charge for a very long time if this breaks down. Bulls would gain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, DrStool said: When you buy a stock, the guy who sold it to you gets your cash in return. I stand corrected. In my humble defense I haven't had my morning coffee yet You are correct - fuzzy logic on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, sandy beach said: I stand corrected. In my humble defense I haven't had my morning coffee yet You are correct - fuzzy logic on my part. No, it's good that you brought this up. It's a common Wall Street/CNBC shibboleth that the tens of thousands of millions of readers of the Stool need to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: THE US WILL BACK TEMPORARY DEBT SERVICE STANDSTILLS FOR COUNTRIES SEEKING DEBT RELIEF UNDER THE G20 COMMON FRAMEWORK. How would this work? Does the IMF just restructure their sovereign debt? The world is drowning in debt from ZERP & Q/E. As Jimbo says I doubt they will do anything but double down in debt to infinity slingshots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 Pivot canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Jimbo said: THE SLINGSHOT MANEUVER As you are all aware the Fed is deperately trying to blast away from the debt default event horizon. Just one little problem. There is not enough fuel to do it. So what can it do..... Plan B....the pivot....the only real option left.... It can turn around and accelarate towards the debt..... Picking up inflationary speed by printing..... So reducing the debts "real debt mass" And slingshot around it.... As a spacecraft slingshots around a planet....... Picking up speed to reach escape velocity. This is the only way to escape the debt event horizon now...... Reduce the real debt mass. Reduce the debt event horizon. Reduce the gravitational force. Then escape. If they would do this right now the result would be some kind of hyperinflation, espacially if we consider a partial roll back of globalization, which in itself would be inflationary (as globalization was deflationary in the last 2-3 decades) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, DrStool said: No, it's good that you brought this up. It's a common Wall Street/CNBC shibboleth that the tens of thousands of millions of readers of the Stool need to understand. Yeah, thanks for enlighten us 5. 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 7 including me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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