DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 That's right. Bulls don't give up. And bears always do, sooner or later, so for those of you looking for and holding shorts, you will need strength of heart, patience, and most importantly, good timing. Because, in the end, timing is everything. Timing is the means. Timing is the end. The good news for bears is that the overnight pullback in the ES, 24 hour S&P futures, did manage to eke out a new low before turning up around 3 AM New Yak Time. It sets up the possibility of a head and shoulders top pattern developing. But a 5 day cycle projection of 3715 is left on the table. If they don't hit that, it's a sign of minor strength. Approaching 5:30 AM, they're still rising, and have broken the first minor downtrend channel. Minor resistance shows up at 3748 and 3763. Gotta clear those for the bulls to claim victory in the current hourly scrum in the pre market. There are a number of scenarios that seem equally likely in the regular trading hours. These include, in part, up, down, or sideways. If there are any others, I will let you know, but those are the ones I'm seeing at this point. But if the bulls can clear 3787, it would be their ball, and driving. If this market drops under 3720, bears are headed for the score. Today is the bears' best shot to keep it going. Saturday belongs to the bulls. 😉 Meanwhile, back at the big picture: Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022 Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections October 5, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Beware! This Swing is Old October 3, 2022 Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now October 2, 2022 Gold Reason to Hope No Reason for Optimism September 30, 2022 Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Hourly close above 3750 would put bulls in the driver's seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Whoa. WTF was dat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Ah. Jobs beat. Except in the real world they didn't. Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Good morning... We were to the point(in the pattern) where it had to crack one way or the other. Third time to...and this time through...3720. Valid unless it quickly rejects... Interesting turn of events. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko says he's banning inflation: "From October 6, all price increases are forbidden. Forbidden!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Participation rate went up but otherwise it was good news and good news is bad news right now because all anyone cares about is what the Fed will do the first week of November. CPI next week will seal the deal but right now the market says the odds of a 0.75% hike is nearly unanimous at 85%. +45K jobs in professional services; +5K jobs in real estate? They must need a lot of realtors to sell all these California pot farms I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 9/37/22.....the adlerian calendar Adlerian calendar is calculated by the Market’s movement around a galactic body known as the Federal Reserve. Months are defined by 6 week gestation periods whereby the new calendar month begins and ends with a defining moment where one individual known as the Chairman defines the financial existence for all others. The Adlerian calendar was derived from the Philadelphian derivative where one individual interprets the scripture of the Chairman and the actions of the Chairman’s committee. The process of this one select interpreter is also known as Gastrointestinal Epithelium where he guides and protects his followers from the toxic or otherwise harmful luminal contents of this galactic body. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, potatohead said: 9/37/22.....the adlerian calendar Happy birthday Doctor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 „… until something breaks.“ and that „break“ alone will be good for 500 points in S&P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 3 hours ago, sandy beach said: Participation rate went up but otherwise it was good news and good news is bad news right now because all anyone cares about is what the Fed will do the first week of November. CPI next week will seal the deal but right now the market says the odds of a 0.75% hike is nearly unanimous at 85%. +45K jobs in professional services; +5K jobs in real estate? They must need a lot of realtors to sell all these California pot farms I guess. The Fed has never raised rates in this cycle. Not once. It is simply following the market, and lagging badly. Its rubber stamp can't keep up with reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Mmmmm hmmmm. Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 Measured move price implication of that top is 3650. We are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection looks 3635 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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