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How Old Is Old? 10/3/22

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45 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

Last two months home price declines steepest since 2009.

FeJ3Qy-VsAAjm_y.jpg

They apparently use closed sales, which is about a 3 month lag from current market. NAR and Redfin use last month's contracts, which is as close to current market as possible. NAR -2.4% in August. -3.5% in July. 

But even that is probably an understatement. Volume has collapsed. Down 22.5% y/y.  

Median new home sale prices are also based on current contracts. Down 6.3% in August. 

Case Shiller reporting lag is about 5 months behind the market. It won't show these numbers until January. 

 

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Is 3600 holding or is this a one-day wonder?

Nice reversal(thus far) on the SPX...

Looks like I can't tuck this chart into the archives quite yet(and it's been updated to reflect Friday and Today's candle).  As long as it confirms, I consider this a valid mid-cycle turn.  October 1st is mid-cycle.

Which, as you know...means the door is not closed to 2008 and...until 3500 is breeched,  I'll stand by that.  After all, the decline from Friday fulfills all requirements for a finished fifth wave.  Just a carryover(truncated fifth wave), but that is all that's needed.If it doesn't confirm? 

it's Business as usual.

1749934050_MidCycle-September302022.thumb.jpg.e25ef37e1bc70428484098a0950850dd.jpg

A rally to back thru 3750 and...well, you know.  Of course that is speculation until we see follow-thru. 

As I sit here at this moment...I'm more than inclined to give the SPX a little leeway when I take what I'm seeing in the TLT and the UUP into consideration.  Not to mention...the metals.

At the end of the day though.  I'll judge today, by what I see tomorrow.  One day does not a new trend make.

As I've mentioned...the 2008 pattern is my preferred pattern during this decline.  IF we had follow-thru(to the downside) from Friday...I was ready to walk away from that plan completely as soon as today.

Best,

TCG

 

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3 minutes ago, DrStool said:

The unusual megaphone pattern at a low continues to develop. The 5 day cycle projection now looks 3740. Top of megaphone is 3760 right now. 

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Megaphone signals huge indecision. Market doesn‘t know what to do. A battle zone so to say, like TCG said 3600-3900.

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3 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Few reasons why we are up today/

1. Monthly inflows

2. Quarterly inflows

3. Every „sell in summer“ strategy buys today

4. Folks simply play that we will not be down 4 quarters in a row

5. Yom Kippur

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6 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said:

I can't argue with that, but it's already taken a large hit.  I prefer....to pick my fruit while it is higher in the tree.  Less risk...

I agree. Good entry would have been 210-220, end Dec 21 short signal, then wait first few days in Jan 22 for confirmation. 

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