DrStool Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 5 day cycle projection 3700-3715 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 45 minutes ago, sandy beach said: Last two months home price declines steepest since 2009. They apparently use closed sales, which is about a 3 month lag from current market. NAR and Redfin use last month's contracts, which is as close to current market as possible. NAR -2.4% in August. -3.5% in July. But even that is probably an understatement. Volume has collapsed. Down 22.5% y/y. Median new home sale prices are also based on current contracts. Down 6.3% in August. Case Shiller reporting lag is about 5 months behind the market. It won't show these numbers until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Is 3600 holding or is this a one-day wonder? Nice reversal(thus far) on the SPX... Looks like I can't tuck this chart into the archives quite yet(and it's been updated to reflect Friday and Today's candle). As long as it confirms, I consider this a valid mid-cycle turn. October 1st is mid-cycle. Which, as you know...means the door is not closed to 2008 and...until 3500 is breeched, I'll stand by that. After all, the decline from Friday fulfills all requirements for a finished fifth wave. Just a carryover(truncated fifth wave), but that is all that's needed.If it doesn't confirm? it's Business as usual. A rally to back thru 3750 and...well, you know. Of course that is speculation until we see follow-thru. As I sit here at this moment...I'm more than inclined to give the SPX a little leeway when I take what I'm seeing in the TLT and the UUP into consideration. Not to mention...the metals. At the end of the day though. I'll judge today, by what I see tomorrow. One day does not a new trend make. As I've mentioned...the 2008 pattern is my preferred pattern during this decline. IF we had follow-thru(to the downside) from Friday...I was ready to walk away from that plan completely as soon as today. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 The unusual megaphone pattern at a low continues to develop. The 5 day cycle projection now looks 3740. Top of megaphone is 3760 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Few reasons why we are up today/ 1. Monthly inflows 2. Quarterly inflows 3. Every „sell in summer“ strategy buys today 4. Folks simply play that we will not be down 4 quarters in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 I think 3720 is where we ran into trouble? TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, DrStool said: The unusual megaphone pattern at a low continues to develop. The 5 day cycle projection now looks 3740. Top of megaphone is 3760 right now. Megaphone signals huge indecision. Market doesn‘t know what to do. A battle zone so to say, like TCG said 3600-3900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Shorts are their own worst enema Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, fxfox said: Few reasons why we are up today/ 1. Monthly inflows 2. Quarterly inflows 3. Every „sell in summer“ strategy buys today 4. Folks simply play that we will not be down 4 quarters in a row 5. Yom Kippur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Etsy looks like a good short around 120, stop 140, target 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 I can't argue with that, but it's already taken a large hit. I prefer....to pick my fruit while it is higher in the tree. Less risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 1 minute ago, DrStool said: 5. Yom Kippur Right. Sorry I forgot. How said an old jewish friend of mine? „Remember: Half of Wall Street is jewish“. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 Only half? Every business partner I have/had on the Street is Jewish. Has anyone looked at Intel lately? Yikes...it seems to only know one way. The 2020 magnet didn't even slow it down. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: I can't argue with that, but it's already taken a large hit. I prefer....to pick my fruit while it is higher in the tree. Less risk... I agree. Good entry would have been 210-220, end Dec 21 short signal, then wait first few days in Jan 22 for confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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