Jimi Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 On 9/30/2022 at 6:11 PM, Jimi said: This place up in Willits, maybe about 2.5 hours north of the Bay Area, is one of those "retrospective" places.... About 30 additional minutes up the road from Willits is the megalopolis named "Covelo," with which of course we are very familiar given its fame & centrality in popular culture. "Wait... what?" Actually, it's a tiny town of ~1,300 people buried in Mendocino County of which I'd never heard until... well, this listing: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Unknown/83000-Eel-River-Ranch-Rd-95428/home/181718597 This is another "Retrospective Stonedhedge" farm. When I first looked at this listing, photos 5 & 7 stood out, because of the blanket. I mean, an obvious "tell," amirite?! And the attributes the listing celebrates: "Privacy with lots of opportunities at its best! 18+ acres on 2 separate legal parcels.... 3 wells and over 18,000 gallons of water storage." But where was the farm? Now that we know what to look for, "the farm" becomes the central photographic feature in the listing... appearing first in photo #1, and then... photos #12 through #23 (with the exception of #19). In some of these photos, you can see that stubby stalks are all that remain of the harvest recently procured from the rounds. Okay, some back of the envelope. It's hard to know which photos are duplicative... but I think I can count about 25 rounds in one of the photos (#14). Let's say that's how many there are. Google suggests commercial growers can yield between 1/2 to 1 full pound per plant: let's say they achieved a per-plant yield of 0.75 lb. Easy math = 25 X 0.75 = ~19 lbs. Value of an outdoor-grown pound is... uncertain, but I'm going to say $700 wholesale from my brief googling. That's $13K per year. Note that the listing indicates "Est. $2,630/mo" cost to finance the $450K purchase, or... $31,560 per year. Ugh... at ~$700/plant and suggested financing, you're going to need successfully grow & harvest $31,560/700 = ~45 plants to approach break even. This farm was far more attractive when wholesale was closer to $1,500/lb, and 30-year financing (on ~$400K loan balance) was closer to 3% than 7%. Easy forecast: more farms are coming to market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Jimi said: About 30 additional minutes up the road from Willits is the megalopolis named "Covelo," with which of course we are very familiar given its fame & centrality in popular culture. "Wait... what?" Actually, it's a tiny town of ~1,300 people buried in Mendocino County of which I'd never heard until... well, this listing: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Unknown/83000-Eel-River-Ranch-Rd-95428/home/181718597 This is another "Retrospective Stonedhedge" farm. When I first looked at this listing, photos 5 & 7 stood out, because of the blanket. I mean, an obvious "tell," amirite?! And the attributes the listing celebrates: "Privacy with lots of opportunities at its best! 18+ acres on 2 separate legal parcels.... 3 wells and over 18,000 gallons of water storage." But where was the farm? Now that we know what to look for, "the farm" becomes the central photographic feature in the listing... appearing first in photo #1, and then... photos #12 through #23 (with the exception of #19). In some of these photos, you can see that stubby stalks are all that remain of the harvest recently procured from the rounds. Okay, some back of the envelope. It's hard to know which photos are duplicative... but I think I can count about 25 rounds in one of the photos (#14). Let's say that's how many there are. Google suggests commercial growers can yield between 1/2 to 1 full pound per plant: let's say they achieved a per-plant yield of 0.75 lb. Easy math = 25 X 0.75 = ~19 lbs. Value of an outdoor-grown pound is... uncertain, but I'm going to say $700 wholesale from my brief googling. That's $13K per year. Note that the listing indicates "Est. $2,630/mo" cost to finance the $450K purchase, or... $31,560 per year. Ugh... at ~$700/plant and suggested financing, you're going to need successfully grow & harvest $31,560/700 = ~45 plants to approach break even. This farm was far more attractive when wholesale was closer to $1,500/lb, and 30-year financing (on ~$400K loan balance) was closer to 3% than 7%. Easy forecast: more farms are coming to market. Woah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted October 3, 2022 Report Share Posted October 3, 2022 WAITING FOR IT We all know what it is........ Where is the Pivot ETF when you need it...... So right now its a two horse race..... 1/ Horse "Bond Market crisis" 2/ Horse "Low enough inflation". The winner wins the Pivot Cup and gets all the free money they need. Place your stock and bond bets now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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