One Bank, One Intervention, is One Thing

[DrStool]

37 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Likewise they're holding now at the mid June low of lows. If it gives, big downtrending sport in the 3570 range. Then bakoom! 

5 day cycle projection also looks like 3570. 

[Jimi]

16 minutes ago, DrStool said:

It potentially is, but would have to break out topside to complete, as you pernted out. 

Or maybe it's just a rebond de chat mort.  

Wee? 

If it’s a dead cat and it renews its sell off, despite the BoE pledge of spending whatever necessary in support… one week after the same BoE was supposed to begin QT… all the sharks will presumably organize their circle around the BoE’s commitment, much as they did to Britain's commitment to the ERM in ‘92.
Seems like that could get real fugly.

[Jimi]

If a global route on G7-minus-USA sovereign debt gets underway, the Fed would seemingly have to step in as the classic "Lender of Last Resort" and start buying up its allies' distressed issue, which would both stem the crisis and reverse dollar strength, which is somewhat the root of part of the immediate problem in the first place.

This is Kindelberger all over again....

Quote

 Kindleberger argues that the international economic system was rendered unstable by the British inability and the American unwillingness to stabilize it by taking on the role of an economic hegemon, although Kindleberger hesitates to use this term.

 https://mediawiki.middlebury.edu/IPE/Kindleberger_and_His_Explanation_of_the_1929_Depression

Whether it is imminent or decades down the road, given the global role of the US Dollar (combined with debt profligacy), the Fed is going to face accommodating the Rest of World eventually/inevitably on its balance sheet.

[The CoinGuy]

"One day does not a new trend make."

"I'll judge today, by what I see tomorrow."

The broad markets...

Despite the Volume coming in yesterday, it still looked like a 4th wave to me.  I believe were in the final stab to the downside here...just patiently waiting for completion. 

At this point...I believe it's best to just sit back and let the market give us...the rest of the story.

Although...like I've already stated...the line in the sand against the dopamine(liquidity) dripsters is 3600.  The first attempt(to penetrate) yielded action out of Britain.   I hear the next stage is something akin to delirium...

I'm watching 3600 with great interest...

On my end...just taking it easy.

Not much else to say...attempting to take it as easy as possible.  I had a desk temporarily installed in my bedroom next to my bed...so I can literally fall out of bed...and into a desk. 

I'm taking it...that...easy. 

Smile.

TCG

[potatohead]

1 hour ago, DrStool said:

British Gilt, not to be confused with Catholic guilt nor Jewish guilt. 

Hourly. 

sounds like the market is feeling a little dirty or sinful at the moment

[DrStool]

http://capitalstool.com/music/jaws.wav

 

 

[DrStool]

21 minutes ago, Jimi said:

If a global route on G7-minus-USA sovereign debt gets underway, the Fed would seemingly have to step in as the classic "Lender of Last Resort" and start buying up its allies' distressed issue, which would both stem the crisis and reverse dollar strength, which is somewhat the root of part of the immediate problem in the first place.

This is Kindelberger all over again....

 https://mediawiki.middlebury.edu/IPE/Kindleberger_and_His_Explanation_of_the_1929_Depression

Whether it is imminent or decades down the road, given the global role of the US Dollar (combined with debt profligacy), the Fed is going to face accommodating the Rest of World eventually/inevitably on its balance sheet.

The Fed has been the central banker to the world since the Primary Dealer system was instituted many decades ago. More than 2/3 of Primary Dealers are foreign banks, including UK banks - Barclays, HSBC (Hide Shit Bury Collateral), and NatWest which the UK gov used to take over the big failed bank in the last go round, whose name escapes me. 

[fxfox]

46 minutes ago, Jimi said:

If it’s a dead cat and it renews its sell off, despite the BoE pledge of spending whatever necessary in support… one week after the same BoE was supposed to begin QT… all the sharks will presumably organize their circle around the BoE’s commitment, much as they did to Britain's commitment to the ERM in ‘92.
Seems like that could get real fugly.

In 1992 the Brits thought the Bundesbank would help them, but it didn‘t, which was good. Nowadays the Club Med took over the ECB and so the ECB will hrlp the Brits, which is bad.

Two things must happen:

1. Germany must get rid of the Green Maoists

2. The Club Med must get kicked out of top level jobs in the ECB and replaced by Germans, Austrians or Dutchmen.

[DrStool]

By doing QT, the Fed has cut the legs out from under not just the US banks, but the RoW too. There are currently 25 Primary Dealers. Only 8 are Merkan. The other 17 are furrin. 

[fxfox]

4 minutes ago, DrStool said:

The Fed has been the central banker to the world since the Primary Dealer system was instituted many decades ago. More than 2/3 of Primary Dealers are foreign banks, including UK banks - Barclays, HSBC (Hide Shit Bury Collateral), and NatWest which the UK gov used to take over the big failed bank in the last go round, whose name escapes me. 

Northern Rock

[DrStool]

Primary Dealers, by virtue of their special status aren't just first in line to buy Treasuries, they are in fact to take down what the rest of the market does not absorb. They are REQUIRED to bid at every auction. So they are forced to buy shit with extreme leverage that is constantly falling in price. 

This is the crux of the problem and why I have been so hysterically bearish, particularly on the bond market. 

Or as the French would say, when the bond market rallies,  the chat mort rebond market. Yes that is the French for "dead cat bounce." 

The only thing the dealers can to is to hedge with futures. Not only haven't they done enough, they went the wrong way again in August-September. 

Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late

 

 

[DrStool]

Perfect two line touch with solid positive divergences. If this holds watch out. 

[JonLaw]

While we are all patiently waiting for the trend to change, can we get some street level pictures from Provins and Troyes when you have a chance?

[DrStool]

4 minutes ago, JonLaw said:

While we are all patiently waiting for the trend to change, can we get some street level pictures from Provins and Troyes when you have a chance?

Haven't been to those yet. Not sure when I will. So many places, so little time. 

 

[DrStool]

The latest- 

https://www.instagram.com/200daysineurope/