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Coordinated Intervention, Meet Sellers 9/27/22


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It looked like a coordinated intervention in Europe this morning, starting around 9 AM Central European time, which is 3 AM in New York. They ramped it pretty good until the ES S&P 500 24 hour fuguetures ran into resistance right at the top of the range of the last two days.  Magically, sellers appeared. 

I remarked yesterday that Friday's late low looked like a 5 day cycle low and that we should expect a little pop and churn for a couple of days. So far, that looks like a good call. And if they can't take out the high, when the ultimately take out the low later today, it's gonna be ugly.  For starters, they'd need to take out 3665, and then take out the low at 3645. That would really get the ball rolling downhill. 

z1y-6

How far down is down? Talking about the next day or two only here, a projection derived from the 5 hour bars suggests 3500.  On the other hand, if they break through the top of this range at 3715, the next upside target would only be 3750.

Again, just from a day trading perspective. 

Meanwhile, back at the big picture:

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3 minutes ago, MisFit Kid said:

As For the "Bond Market"

Dillards (have you heard that name in a long time)

Their debt is more valuable than US Treasuries (Debt) (even an odd lot sell)

ie...Lower yield......

WTF is wrong here?

 

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D.JPG

There's going to be options in that Dillards debt that creates that impression.

Strip the options - "Option Adjusted Spread" - and it will reveal a spread to yield curve.

For only a brief moment in 2008 did McDonald's debt trade at a discount to the yield curve.

It just doesn't happen.

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5 hours ago, DrStool said:

And if they can't take out the high, when the ultimately take out the low later today, it's gonna be ugly.  For starters, they'd need to take out 3665, and then take out the low at 3645. That would really get the ball rolling downhill. 

You're a witch.

That's the explanation for how you do this.

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6 hours ago, DrStool said:

I remarked yesterday that Friday's late low looked like a 5 day cycle low and that we should expect a little pop and churn for a couple of days. So far, that looks like a good call. And if they can't take out the high, when they ultimately take out the low later today, it's gonna be ugly.  For starters, they'd need to take out 3665, and then take out the low at 3645. That would really get the ball rolling downhill.

Mmmm hmmm.

You can observe a lot by watching.

 

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