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US Economy Tanking- 9/26/22

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6 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Doc,

I think you would be a very good statistics teacher at a College.

But be carefull:

 

…like from „Final Destination“ 😂😂😂

I am terrible in math, and failed every statistics course I ever attempted. I had no idea what they were talking about. The only standard deviant I know is me, and the only standard errors I am familiar with are the plethora of them I make every day.  

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

Payrolls are typically paid either weekly, bi weekly, or twice a month. The largest collections are at the end of the month. Likewise, in between, day to day, the collections are volatile. So if you compare a partial month to a complete month, you may get a whacky result.

There's also the problem of collections that differ in the same month year to year because they both may not end on a weekday. And using reporting days vs. calendar days also can cause a skew since a huge percentage of US workers have 7 day work weeks. 

Last year, weekly payers would have made their last deposit for September on October 1. So that would reduce the September total below what was actually earned in September. Also, this year by only comparing collections through 9/21, you are including 6 weekend days. 6 * 30/21 = 8.6. Last year's full month would have included earnings for 8 weekend days. 

So there are a lot of ways for there to be a haywire result using your method. Even a direct month to month calendar method often has wacky results. A little smoothing using fixed time periods corrects for that, with the downside being that it does result in a lag of a week or so. That's usually not a problem if you apply TA to the chart. 

In the end I have always felt that good analysis requires a visual. Numbers alone just don't do it for me. TA works just as well on economic series as it does on prices, maybe even better. 

The recent trend on that chart is pretty clear.  That's why I immediately saw a red flag in your post.  

When analyzing data, in comparing time periods always be sure to compare like to like, and make a visual. Seeing is believing.  That's why I put tons of charts in my reports.  I need to see it. 

Thanks for the explanation! Very helpful! And yes the visual has an impact that I didn't at all get from looking at the numbers in a single snapshot.

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I think that the vast majority still doesn‘t get what the real catastrophe regarding financial markets in 2022 is: It is the Bond crash. This has such huge implications for all kinds of whales, insurances conglomerates and whatnot. It is simply a tidal shift of habits which were in place for DECADES, I repeat: DECADES.

See, REAL money gives a shit about ARKK, Robinhood, Teladoc, GME, 24 year old house flippers or whatever.

If the FED doesn‘t reverse soon the implications for the markets will be of epic and catastrophic proportions. You see it already with the Euro, the Pound, Real Estate and so on. The June low will break and then 3000 comes in sight. Now EVERYONE on earth thinks that 3k would be the absolute low, „only if we get a deep recession“ they say. Why??? If the FED doesn‘t reverse in the foreseable future they can be happy if 2000 holds…

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24 minutes ago, fxfox said:

I think that the vast majority still doesn‘t get what the real catastrophe regarding financial markets in 2022 is: It is the Bond crash. This has such huge implications for all kinds of whales, insurances conglomerates and whatnot. It is simply a tidal shift of habits which were in place for DECADES, I repeat: DECADES.

See, REAL money gives a shit about ARKK, Robinhood, Teladoc, GME, 24 year old house flippers or whatever.

If the FED doesn‘t reverse soon the implications for the markets will be of epic and catastrophic proportions. You see it already with the Euro, the Pound, Real Estate and so on. The June low will break and then 3000 comes in sight. Now EVERYONE on earth thinks that 3k would be the absolute low, „only if we get a deep recession“ they say. Why??? If the FED doesn‘t reverse in the foreseable future they can be happy if 2000 holds…

IMHO the problem is over two decades of QE, excessively low rates, etc. from the Fed has created fragility in the economic system so that they can no longer use their mandated tools for monetary policy without breaking things. Personally given a chose I'd rather that they break things than see inflation run away. But that's just me.  

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