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Central Banks Yen to Intervene- 9/23/22

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Mohamed A. El-Erian: Change in the liquidity paradigm, growth paradigm & globalization paradigm, accelerated loss of confidence in policy makers, flows - 50 billion into cash from assets. Like 2013, 2020 questioning functioning of treasury market. Its about structural weaknesses and fragility. It could start spreading contagion. Of the five loss of confidence in policy makers is the one you have to keep an eye on.

 

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33 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

JUST IN: Reverse Repos by the Federal Reserve hit record $2.36 trillion. Yes, trillion.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/

I'd been looking to see if the jump this week was going to stick. It did. That's a lot of money. Somebody or a lot of somebody's trust the Fed more than the markets I'm guessing. As in confidence in performing a trade?

 

Wow, it's been 35 years since Prector got famous with his Grand Super Cycle.  What has driven this cycle?  Energy.  At least consider that the economy is an energy system, not a money system.  I'm in the the some of both schools. energy+money=economy,  but one would be remiss I think if you don't consider this.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/06/19/175-the-surplus-energy-economy/

In this telling then, of cycles and the economy,  this one started around 1750 with the steam engine.  If we had limitless cheap energy we would have limitless wealth. We don't. We won't.

 

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Anyone, who knows the market KNOWS It's the late 60's period leading, no, no, no...we have high inflation...it HAS to be the late 70's!  Both of you are wrong, I was there in '73...we're headed over a cliff, I can feel it!  I'm telling you....it just seems right!  You might have a point or two, but I don't think so...it feels reminiscent of that period right before '87.  Bullshit!  I can still remember the mild recession in 1990...this feels exactly the same.  Bah, If you were actually around in '90, you'd understand today is no different than as we came out in '91.  The recession ended right before the bull market started!  We are headed...for. the. moon. gentlemen.

Aye. Aye. Aye.  Everywhere I turn....I see people commenting about this topic. 

I'll toss my hat into the ring...

While I've shown you through my charts that our current period is reminiscent of the 2008 decline...it's not what I've been watching closely.  

I've taught since 2009 what we'll be facing in the future(which just so happens to now be the present), but nobody wanted to hear/see these types of arguments during a period of ease.  So...I just tucked the lesson away.

The three charts below represent those old ideas...

I'm fully prepared to give mea culpas when I'm wrong. 

This time...I want to be wrong.

 

The Beginning...

149936450_TheBeginning-September232022.thumb.jpg.bbb2290d5d86dba7ff842e76ed20fec2.jpg

The Middle...

1019964295_TheMiddle-September242022.thumb.jpg.04a17f3d9d7d28de3aeae1ab57570cad.jpg

The End...1277100429_TheEnd-September242022.thumb.jpg.6d0fe59815f7966fa3dcb97aeec9fc9c.jpg

Best,

TCG

oh...and...uh...

Think I'll just park this right here.

1228765306_ThisIS...IT-September242020.thumb.jpg.1df57cc6975634f5cc29212ed1d72bfc.jpg

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20 hours ago, The CoinGuy said:

Keep making those solar panel's fellas!

ph...

I believe one of my first comments on this forum had to do with metals and oil.   I said the oil price during the pandemic should be a rather decent arbiter of what to expect in the PAPER price of silver.

I no longer own businesses because of two factors.  I have no need for one...and they're too time consuming.  Like a child who refuses to grow up.  Although...in the metals business(of which I have a multi generational background in farming, metals AND fabrication)...I still have many friends. 

Some of those friends are involved in the precious metals and they've been repeating the same words you now just penned. These are seasoned men with a minimum of 50 years experience each(I was actually sitting on the knees of several of these men during the 70's run)...and...they've done nothing but repeat to me these same words for what feels like...going on years.  One gentlemen who I trust with my life, he is in his 90's and his collections would rival anyone on this planet.   His complaint as of late has been.  TCG...."The good stuff is tucked away and I don't see it coming loose anytime soon".

Sooner...or probably later(too late for most) it will all come together into the perfect storm. 

Although...if we do get ourselves too far into a financial contagion...it might alter the dynamic(aka: the point of entry).  This is why, you'll hear me say.  Cash is king - for now(AND in demand, my bonds guy says shortages too!).   You have to have SOME cash available to buy from those who are coughing up their assets(into the streets).  Please recall...I hail from the land of Buffett.  "We always have cash...if you're in distress."  Do you understand me?  I told my own past students to short the market...and raise cash while continuing to DCA into the metals(and miners, not yet though, but start testing the water AFTER the distress period we are in now.  I personally prefer the Royalty model) on weakness using the strategies I taught them. 

I believe I've said this before, but it does bear repeating ph.  I'm here to comment only because I like people and I want to see everyone do well, but ESPECIALLY the blue collar worker or the guy who's trying to feed his family. 

That is why I'm spending my time commenting.  No other reason.  Period.

I'm going to say it again...If you're not a millionaire, or since this is 2022.  If you don't have more than 10 million...socking away the silver metal hand over fist, seems...more than reasonable.  Afterall...the premium on sealed boxes isn't getting any smaller.  Although...the lower your cost basis, the higher your eventual multiple.  Hence...my repeated call for...patience.  Also, it must be said.  Let the rich guys play in paper.  A steady diet of raising Cash and DCA into the metals(until opportunities arise in shares) should suffice even the least patient individuals among us.  I'll say it again.  Patience.  Pays.

I know guys like to toss numbers around to sound important and knowledgeable.  I don't like to do that...unless I thoroughly understand the argument "before" I set my feet down that path.  I don't open my mouth until I feel reasonably certain of being correct because I always hold myself publicly accountable for every call I make.  I'm the type of person who is harder on himself than anyone else could be.  Do you understand this?  

I assure you I'm not perfect...not even close, but I also don't need to retract my statements on a regular basis. 

Why?

Because I weigh my words carefully.

With that said...

"I'm fairly certain we'll see 150 to 160 in silver and depending on how it is obtained...that may or may not be the top.  At this time...I do not know - for certain.  I'll need to see at least the first stage of the advance before I can make an exact determination."

I'll stand on that.

Now...how about gold?  I use a different model for gold and I cannot come up with anything more than a guess until I see this bottom.  Once we've bottomed, you'll see me repeatedly mentioning a target objective...and then(again) refining that objective until(and through) the first advance.

By the time of the 3rd wave in both....I'll be firing on all cylinders.

Speaking of that bottom I'm waiting on...13, 9, or 4(sometimes 4.50). 

I've already made my guess, now...I'll just let the "pattern" in the ^HUI define my thoughts going forward vs telling the market what to do with my own opinion.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

oh...and...

jimi...thanks for the well wishes.  Not out of the woods yet, sore as hell...will comment as I can.

Everyone...While I haven't been able to talk about "measuring from the center to the outside" as much as I'd like.   I would now like you to go back to my chart that I posted today(and ph quoted) and take another look at the ^HUI.  See how it encircles itself around 200?  You see that swing point we just took out today?  Let's call that a "Head".  Now...look up to the top of the range back at 325?  Now look back at the head and then back to the top, 125?  Then consider my words from the last few days?  Think it all over.   Let's watch this unfold...together.

 

"Speaking of that bottom I'm waiting on...13, 9, or 4(sometimes 4.50).  "

What were you referring to? Appreciate the comments.

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11 hours ago, potatohead said:

"Speaking of that bottom I'm waiting on...13, 9, or 4(sometimes 4.50).  "

What were you referring to? Appreciate the comments.

Good afternoon ph...

(sometimes 4.50) was a typo.  It should have read (sometimes 7.50)...it's been corrected.

A few months back I mentioned a pearl of wisdom that I passed along to a former protege(circa 2008).  A couple of months later I followed up with this chart to conclude the story. .

Here it is...

Can you Believe it...Now? Part II - August 20, 2022.

35314449_CanyouBELIEVEitNowPartII-August202022.thumb.jpg.11bfe018bd970608ad9aa4924fe578ca.jpg

Have a good weekend...

The CoinGuy

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The screaming has started.

Yes the torrent of fed criticism has  begun. 

More and more  public pressure  will be placed on the fed to pivot.

But pivoting is no solution.

It will  just lead to more inflation.

There are no good solutions left.

Can't wait for the requisite Cramer meltdown to "do something".

The fed has just let the market find its own level on rates.

The calls to pivot are profoundly anti market.

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