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Central Banks Yen to Intervene- 9/23/22

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2 hours ago, The CoinGuy said:

You do know...when they park it above the swing point(^GSPC), they plan to crack it through hard right?

Good afternoon gentlemen...

Everything's going well...a bit of an infection they're trying to clear up.  I'll leave the other details out...

I reviewed the thread since I left.  Two points.

1)  Jimi...Even I'm surprised the forecast accelerated in the fashion we've witnessed thus far from 3900.

2)  Bears...and yachts.  You know...I'm in the market for a yacht right?  I have my guy in Jacksonville right now hunting down a crew.   I'll do my best not to take offense at the yacht comment. 

Although, to toss in my .02.  Bears don't own yachts(yet),  because they only buy them at deep discount.

At least...that is what I will do.

See you in a couple/few weeks.

EDIT:  Doc...after viewing your video....I'd love to trade places.  Actually right now would be ideal.  😀.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...uh...I'll just park this right here.451982425_AllMarketsAreConnected-September232022.thumb.jpg.e9dfc18fd446b47eeb36155ea7cc867c.jpg

Glad to hear your procedure went well. Great call on the markets. Been following closely. I am in the metals business and what we are seeing are premiums on products across the board are rising on the bid and offer side. Although the paper price is going down, rising premiums are offsetting some of the pain. Number of large wholesalers are running out of inventory.

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2 hours ago, sandy beach said:

I'm part Scotsman and wanna a fucking yacht. If any of you bears don't need yours...

I get wildly seasick... like my father... like my sons. It's an inherited inner-ear thing. I once got myself carsick as the driver going up to Point Reyes. So... the very last purchase I would ever make is a floating vessel... and if I did, it would be a barge loaded with dramamine.

But in the "I wanna buy a distressed asset' department, I recently learned the below, which also has the added prospect of a "Golden Visa":

Quote

In this context, what happens to interest rates takes on great importance for anyone with a mortgage. This is particularly the case in Portugal, where the vast majority of loans continue to be taken out at a variable interest rate (unlike in most of Europe): in 2020, over 93% of outstanding loans were at variable rates, representing some 92% of the total amount owed; in that same year, over 82% of the new loans granted and of the amount of those new loans were at variable rates,1 with the 6 and 12-month Euribor being the main main benchmark indices.2 As for the new loans granted in 2020, some 74% of them (both in number and in amount) were indexed to the 12-month Euribor and around 25% to the 6-month Euribor.

 

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/how-could-rise-interest-rates-affect-household-budgets-portugal

I do love to eat fish, and Lisbon is a lovely city, and I can convince myself that learning Portuguese would be fun. 

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Just now, Jimi said:

I get wildly seasick... like my father... like my sons. It's an inherited inner-ear thing. I once got myself carsick as the driver going up to Point Reyes. So... the very last purchase I would ever make is a floating vessel... and if I did, it would be a barge loaded with dramamine.

But in the "I wanna buy a distressed asset' department, I recently learned the below, which also has the added prospect of a "Golden Visa":

 

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/how-could-rise-interest-rates-affect-household-budgets-portugal

I do love to eat fish, and Lisbon is a lovely city, and I can convince myself that learning Portuguese would be fun. 

Oh, and glad to see you survived The Knife, TCG....

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Keep making those solar panel's fellas!

ph...

I believe one of my first comments on this forum had to do with metals and oil.   I said the oil price during the pandemic should be a rather decent arbiter of what to expect in the PAPER price of silver.

I no longer own businesses because of two factors.  I have no need for one...and they're too time consuming.  Like a child who refuses to grow up.  Although...in the metals business(of which I have a multi generational background in farming, metals AND fabrication)...I still have many friends. 

Some of those friends are involved in the precious metals and they've been repeating the same words you now just penned. These are seasoned men with a minimum of 50 years experience each(I was actually sitting on the knees of several of these men during the 70's run)...and...they've done nothing but repeat to me these same words for what feels like...going on years.  One gentlemen who I trust with my life, he is in his 90's and his collections would rival anyone on this planet.   His complaint as of late has been.  TCG...."The good stuff is tucked away and I don't see it coming loose anytime soon".

Sooner...or probably later(too late for most) it will all come together into the perfect storm. 

Although...if we do get ourselves too far into a financial contagion...it might alter the dynamic(aka: the point of entry).  This is why, you'll hear me say.  Cash is king - for now(AND in demand, my bonds guy says shortages too!).   You have to have SOME cash available to buy from those who are coughing up their assets(into the streets).  Please recall...I hail from the land of Buffett.  "We always have cash...if you're in distress."  Do you understand me?  I told my own past students to short the market...and raise cash while continuing to DCA into the metals(and miners, not yet though, but start testing the water AFTER the distress period we are in now.  I personally prefer the Royalty model) on weakness using the strategies I taught them. 

I believe I've said this before, but it does bear repeating ph.  I'm here to comment only because I like people and I want to see everyone do well, but ESPECIALLY the blue collar worker or the guy who's trying to feed his family. 

That is why I'm spending my time commenting.  No other reason.  Period.

I'm going to say it again...If you're not a millionaire, or since this is 2022.  If you don't have more than 10 million...socking away the silver metal hand over fist, seems...more than reasonable.  Afterall...the premium on sealed boxes isn't getting any smaller.  Although...the lower your cost basis, the higher your eventual multiple.  Hence...my repeated call for...patience.  Also, it must be said.  Let the rich guys play in paper.  A steady diet of raising Cash and DCA into the metals(until opportunities arise in shares) should suffice even the least patient individuals among us.  I'll say it again.  Patience.  Pays.

I know guys like to toss numbers around to sound important and knowledgeable.  I don't like to do that...unless I thoroughly understand the argument "before" I set my feet down that path.  I don't open my mouth until I feel reasonably certain of being correct because I always hold myself publicly accountable for every call I make.  I'm the type of person who is harder on himself than anyone else could be.  Do you understand this?  

I assure you I'm not perfect...not even close, but I also don't need to retract my statements on a regular basis. 

Why?

Because I weigh my words carefully.

With that said...

"I'm fairly certain we'll see 150 to 160 in silver and depending on how it is obtained...that may or may not be the top.  At this time...I do not know - for certain.  I'll need to see at least the first stage of the advance before I can make an exact determination."

I'll stand on that.

Now...how about gold?  I use a different model for gold and I cannot come up with anything more than a guess until I see this bottom.  Once we've bottomed, you'll see me repeatedly mentioning a target objective...and then(again) refining that objective until(and through) the first advance.

By the time of the 3rd wave in both....I'll be firing on all cylinders.

Speaking of that bottom I'm waiting on...13, 9(sometimes 7.50), or 4.

I've already made my guess, now...I'll just let the "pattern" in the ^HUI define my thoughts going forward vs telling the market what to do with my own opinion.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

oh...and...

jimi...thanks for the well wishes.  Not out of the woods yet, sore as hell...will comment as I can.

Everyone...While I haven't been able to talk about "measuring from the center to the outside" as much as I'd like.   I would now like you to go back to my chart that I posted today(and ph quoted) and take another look at the ^HUI.  See how it encircles itself around 200?  You see that swing point we just took out today?  Let's call that a "Head".  Now...look up to the top of the range back at 325?  Now look back at the head and then back to the top, 125?  Then consider my words from the last few days?  Think it all over.   Let's watch this unfold...together.

 

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2 hours ago, sandy beach said:

 

I find myself not entirely identifying with Prof. Siegel's indignation. He thought the June lows were the lows, and said future surprises were likely to be to the upside... only 11 days ago. 

Maybe his indignation is actually to a margin call...?

 

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1 hour ago, Jimi said:

I get wildly seasick... like my father... like my sons. It's an inherited inner-ear thing. I once got myself carsick as the driver going up to Point Reyes. So... the very last purchase I would ever make is a floating vessel... and if I did, it would be a barge loaded with dramamine.

But in the "I wanna buy a distressed asset' department, I recently learned the below, which also has the added prospect of a "Golden Visa":

 

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/how-could-rise-interest-rates-affect-household-budgets-portugal

I do love to eat fish, and Lisbon is a lovely city, and I can convince myself that learning Portuguese would be fun. 

OMG - and I learned Portuguese in College (supposedly). 😂

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34 minutes ago, Jimi said:

I find myself not entirely identifying with Prof. Siegel's indignation. He thought the June lows were the lows, and said future surprises were likely to be to the upside... only 11 days ago. 

Maybe his indignation is actually to a margin call...?

 

"The dollar can go down..." -- Prof. Siegel 🤣

FRTYU6KX0AAX13C.jpg

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t really is puzzling to me why more money isn't going into Federal money market funds with these high rates. Much of it gets parked in the Federal Reserve's RRP since the funds have been forced out of treasury bills. High yields and safety - why not?

https://www.financialresearch.gov/money-market-funds/us-mmfs-investments-by-fund-category/

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